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Black Swan Connection November 2019

Posted By Administration, Friday, November 29, 2019

November 2019

                

 6,462     1,414       472         8           6


Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

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Breaking News

It’s Thanksgiving!!

All of us at Stock market manager wish you a happy and healthy holiday season and hope you all have a lot to be thankful for.


 

Feature Article

Searching for a Dead Cat Bounce

By: Dave Lavigne

November 2019

Recall, last month I wrote about the “carnage” amongst many microcap stocks we follow in one context or another, and especially those that are in the unfortunate position of relying on the capital markets to fund continued cash burns as they work towards profitability.  To recap the point, it is as hard as we can ever remember it being for small emerging companies to attract capital, again, especially those that are unprofitable.

To that point, the compression in the shares of many of these companies has been marked, even alarming in some cases. To be fair, some of the compression have been justified by one or more metrics.  For instance, the fact that these companies are burning cash and require additional dilution could on the face (all other things remaining equal) imply lower stock prices. Doing the simple math, setting aside any value we might add to the Company’s underlying valuation because it attracted the working capital to continue advancing the business plan, spreading the same valuation over more shares equates to a lower stock price. In addition, we are not suggesting that all or even many of the stocks taking in on the chin have done so in the absence of poor operating results or other related data points.  Clearly, some of them have performed poorly or at least below expectation, which may certainly justify lower stock prices.

Read Complete Article

 

11-15-19 Greenridge Global Securities Issues Update

WE Enters Commercial EV Production Via JV

WE Enters Commercial EV Production Via JV.  Earlier this week, WE announced it formed a JV to design produce, sell and service New Energy Vehicles in China.  The JV is comprised of Jiangsu Jemmell New Energy Automobile Company Limited (a related company of Jiangsu Jinpeng), GLM and WE.  Jemmell (57% equity) will contribute RMB100,000,000 in cash and RMB300,000,000 in assets that include automobile production facilities and access to Jinpeng’s supply chain and distribution network.  Jinpeng currently markets a variety of lower-end electric vehicles, like scooters and rickshaws.  GLM will contribute RMB200,000,000 of technology, engineering and design, and the GLM brand name for a 29% interest.  WE will contribute RMB65,000,000 in cash and RMB35,000,000 in value of its international assets (Apollo and Ideenion services) for the remaining 14%.  This deal gives WE an effective ownership interest in the JV of roughly 40%, while also showing the value held within GLM’s engineering and design work.  The JV expects to begin commercial production in 2021. 

This deal is significant in several regards.  First, it validates the business model management has moved WE towards, from developing and marketing its own vehicles to providing outsourced services and taking, in some cases, taking equity in lieu of full upfront fees.  Second, it assigns value to GLM for how it values GLM’s designs and the GLM brand name, which could become a more valuable asset if these vehicles sell well.  Finally, the deal requires a relatively small cash outlay for a business that could rapidly become a large contributor to Net Profit in the near future. 

Model Update.  This deal more or less validates the Company’s business plan and the early stages of growth in our model.  As a result, we have made no changes to our model. 

Maintaining Rating & Target.  After a validating JV announcement, we are reiterating our Buy rating and HK$0.75 target price on WE Solutions Limited.  Our target price is based on a P/E multiple of 17 times our fiscal 2021 Diluted EPS estimate of HK 5.22 cents, discounted one year at 15%.  We again note that our model assumes Ideenion’s consideration shares will be issued at HK$0.52 and not a likely higher price which would result in less shares being issued.

TO READ MORE CLICK HERE

 

11-4-19 Greenridge Global Securities
Initiating Coverage of WE Solutions Limited [HK: 860]
with BUY Rating and HK$0.75 Target Price

HONG KONG LISTING CLICK HERE

Business Summary

WE Solutions Limited is in the midst of a complete restructuring from a jewelry and watch retailer and reseller to a hypercar developer and complete mobility engineering solution provider.  The Company is acquiring 86.06% of the hypercar brand Apollo Automobile and acquiring German engineering firm Ideenion, which will join GLM to form the Apollo Advanced Technologies business unit to provide outsourced engineering services.  WE expects to produce Revenue from 1) sales of hypercars, 2) contract and license fees from outsource mobility design, 3) JV income from projects with Chinese and other Asian OEMs, and 4) licensing and merchandising the Apollo brand, including toys, films, games and potentially property licensing projects with Agile Property [HK: 3383] or its Chinese JV partners. 

Key Points

  • WE management has been successful in agreeing to acquire Apollo Automobile and Ideenion in deals made up of mostly stock, the latter of which gets priced at the time of earnout and should result in less dilution for current shareholders.
  • The acquisition of the Apollo brand also enables management to leverage the brand name into merchandising, from products to entertainment (movies and video games) to property development, all of which will build greater interest in the brand and add to financial results.
  • With a planned schedule of one new hypercar model every other year, and Revenue royalties from De Tomaso hypercars that roll out in opposite years, WE Solutions should have a strong recurring Revenue platform from high end vehicles.
  • Outsourced automotive solutions are likely to be in higher demand from the over 400 Chinese-brand auto manufacturers prior to the phase out of the foreign ownership limit being lifted for passenger vehicles by 2022.
  • WE Solutions has an exceptionally strong shareholder list, including Li Ka-shing, an influential Hong Kong businessman and one of the richest people in the world; Solina Chau, an influential Hong Kong businesswoman; the family of Edmund Ho (former Chief Executive of Macau); Shanghai Alliance Investment Limited (“SAIL”), the private equity arm of the Shanghai Municipal Government, and Agile Property, a HK$40 billion market cap land developer.
  • 860 is well funded with strong backing, has relatively little debt on the Balance Sheet, owns valuable legacy assets we estimate to be worth HK$500 to HK$700 million it can look to divest, and has been able to structure stock payment deals that should minimize dilution, all of which leaves it capable of funding current expansion needs and allows flexibility for future strategic acquisitions.

Valuation

We are initiating coverage of WE Solutions Limited with a Buy rating and HK$0.75 target price.  We believe the Company is uniquely positioned in a rapidly growing outsourced mobility solution industry, especially in and around China as it removes foreign ownership limits on automakers.  In addition to the engineering business, which is diversified across European and Asian manufacturers, we believe the Apollo hypercar business should add value to the Company as both a profit center and a merchandising/branding platform.  Additionally, WE Solutions boasts an impressive shareholder list for a smaller company and a management team that has built the current structure in a shareholder friendly manner.  Our target price is based on a P/E multiple of 17 times our fiscal 2021 Diluted EPS estimate of HK 5.22 cents, discounted one year at 15%.  We also note that our model assumes Ideenion’s consideration shares will be issued at HK$0.52 and not a likely higher price which would result in less shares being issued.

Read Complete Report

 

The Wall Street Resource

We are partnering with the wall Street Resource to give our client companies another great resource in being able to distribute quality on line interviews to a broad investing audience.

Their new website launched this month that has webcast interviews with several microcap companies, including Trickles' favorites SRAX and Summit Wireless. Check out www.thewallstreetresource.com to hear the CEOs audio interview.

For more information contact:

Jeff Kone (805) 965-1589
The Wall Street resource
www.thewallstreetresource.com

 

Alternative Investments

The St. Petersburg, FL Realty Market

Quickly becoming a very trendy hot spot St. Petersburg has an astonishing array of great restaurants and nightlife combined with one of the top beach locations anywhere.

St. Petersburg real estate appreciated 57.35% over the last ten years, which is an average annual home appreciation rate of 4.64%, putting St. Petersburg in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation.

Click the Link Below for more information-

Check out this absolutely amazing New Construction Waterfront house in Madeira Beach.

This would be several million more in Palm Beach or Miami for instance.

 

Key West House

This is being offered through:

Gemee Minkler

BRODERICK & ASSOCIATES INC

gemeem@broderickrealty.com
Ph: 479-221-0809

Please subscribe to our newsletter to get ongoing Real Estate updates:

Black Swan Connection Newsletter Signup

 

10-7-19 Greenridge Global Equity Research
Issues Update
Guangdong Land Holdings, Ltd.

Third Quarter Deliveries Not As Robust As Expected

Third Quarter Deliveries Not As Robust As Expected.  Third quarter Revenue was fairly strong, at HK$300.9 million, which came from the delivery of 2,908m2 of space in Laurel House and 1,351m2 delivered from Ruyingju.  However, GDL would need to have a very strong fourth quarter to meet our previous estimates for the second half, which we have since reduced.  Net Loss for the quarter was HK$27.5 million. 

GDH City Update.  The GDH City Project continues to move on track, with construction on schedule and 3,312m2 of NW Land contracted during the third quarter, bringing the total contracted pre-sale amount to 8,303m2.

Model Update.  The only significant change to our model was adjusting the delivery and margins of the Laurel House project, which negatively impacted our estimates through H1:21.  

Maintaining Rating & Reducing Target.  The changes to our model relating to the delivery timing and margins on Laurel House was enough to move our valuation of GDL.  Our new target price is HK$4.00, which is still far below the current stock price.  As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating on Guangdong Land Holdings and again note the significant discount the stock is trading at relative to the value of its portfolio.  Our target price is based on our DCF model that covers GDL’s entire project portfolio, discounted at 6.5%.
Click Here>>

 

10-28-19  Cavitation Technologies, Inc. OTCQB (CVAT)
Announces Kickstarter Campaign for Barmuze Home Device

CHATSWORTH, CA / October 28, 2019/ Cavitation Technologies, Inc. (CTi) (OTCQB: CVAT) (BERLIN: WTC), strategic partner, Alchemy Beverages, Inc.
(ABI) launches a successful Kickstarter campaign https://abiteam.barmuze.com/ABI  

Alchemy Beverages Inc. (ABI), the licensing partner of CTi’s patented technology for altering composition and accelerating the conversion of ingredients to enhance flavors and taste profile of alcoholic beverages, while mitigating the presence of harsh acids,
has successfully launched its Barmuze home device on Kickstarter.

CTi is a major shareholder in ABI and will receive royalty payments from all revenues associated with their licensed technology.

This home product has been in development for several years and the final design and prototype is now fully completed.
ABI has begun taking pre-orders on Kickstarter and expects to begin shipping these first units to consumers in May 2020.

See Press Release
Click Here>>

 

9-25-19 Trickle Research Issues allocation Increase
 AzurRx Biopharma, Inc. NASDAQ AZRX 
12-24 Month Price Target $10.25

2AZRX reported results of their MS1819 CF (cystic fibrosis) trial this morning. Below is the full text of that release. We have provided some comments thereafter. AzurRx BioPharma Announces Positive Results from Phase 2 Trial with MS1819 in Cystic Fibrosis Patients Excellent safety results seen in CF patients, with CFA in line with previous studies and no need for a protease.
Click Here>>

 

9-24-19 Trickle Research Issues Research Note
H Source Holdings, Ltd., TSXV (HSI.V) OTCQB (HSCHF)  
12-24 Month Price Target $0.19

We initiated coverage of H-Source a few months ago, but the Companyhas been relatively quiet since. Notably, since that time they completed a much needed $2 million convertible raise and they announced 2Q results which were a bit below our expectations, which as an only “slightly beyond” pre-revenue Company was not particularly cogent. However, we submit we would always prefer that they exceed our expectations as opposed to miss them, and while they needed the capital, dilution on the face is not generally good either, so on a net basis, the news since the initiation has been less that positive.

Read Complete Report>>

 

9-17-19 Canbiola, Inc. (OTCQB:CANB)

Canbiola Appoints Ex-Home Depot Executive Joseph Hunsberger to its Board of Directors

HICKSVILLE, NY, Sept. 17, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NEWMEDIAWIRE -- Canbiola, Inc. (OTCQB: CANB) (“Canbiola” or the “Company”), a developer, manufacturer and seller of a variety of hemp-derived THC-Free Cannabidiol (CBD) Isolate products such as oils, drops/tinctures, creams, moisturizers, chews, and capsules, is pleased to announce the appointment of Joseph Hunsberger to its Board of Directors.

Read Complete Press Release

 

New Distribution Partner for SMM

In addition to our ongoing growth in distribution we have added a new very important distribution partner in Quote Media.

https://www.quotemedia.com/

They are the premier provider of quote and news services to the financial Industry in North America. They current have some 675 subscribers and publishers of their quote and news feeds including major stock exchanges like NASDAQ and the Toronto Stock Exchange and an extensive list of portfolio managers both in North America and abroad.

All Research updates, releases and news articles will automatically be uploaded from SMM to Quote Media through our RSS feed and will be then ticker tagged and distributed across the Quote Media network in real Time.

This will begin next week and is provided by SMM at no additional charge.

If you have any questions, please feel free to email or give me a call.

 

SMM Coverage-Special Situations

Elio Motors, Inc. (ELIO) $.90 11-25-19

No news isn’t good news…. Oh yes more of the same nothing but ongoing Paul seems able to crank out his promotional Nonsense trying to lure more suckers into putting up a  deposit.

Woo Hoo you get a bonus offer- 25% off of new design wallpapaer

https://www.eliomotors.com/


 

SHORT- Elio Motors, Inc. –ELIO Nov-2016  $11.80  Nov 28-18 price $.90

Nothing new in SEC Filings and no news now for 7 months- That’s NOT good news

Posted by u/snugglesdog

 

Seeking Alpha 10-28-19

Elio Motors: The Short Of The Future

(should be short of the past guys!!)

Anyway…..

Read All about it

 

 

November-19 MODEL PORTFOLIO FOR TRICKLE RESEARCH, LLC.:

 

 

Initiation

 

Price

Initiation

Price @

 

Stock

Symbol

Date

Allocation

Target

Cost Px.

11/22/2019

 

SRAX (Social Reality)

SRAX

Multiple

5

$15.00

$1.79

$1.37

 

Pure Cycle

PCYO

5/5/17

3

$12.00

$7.60

$12.28

 

Hire Quest (Command Center)

CCNI

9/8/17

5

$8.75

$4.44

$6.46

 

Endurance Exploration

EXPL

11/6/17

3

$0.29

$0.18

$0.05

 

Assure Holdings Corp.

ARHH

11/10/17

5

$6.00

$2.90

$1.51

 

AzurRx BioPharma

AZRZ

2/7/18

7

$10.25

$2.96

$0.72

 

Cavitation Technologies, Inc.

CVAT

8/22/19

4

$0.10

$.0325

$0.04

 

Camino Minerals, Corp

CAMZF

4/6/18

6

$0.90

$0.26

$0.06

 

Gold Resource Corp

GORO

7/30/18

5

$7.35

$6.49

$4.30

 

Summit Wirelss

WISA

9/28/18

5

$9.25

$4.30

$0.78

 

Alvoperto Energy, Ltd.

ALVOF

11/7/18

5

$1.10

$0.39

$0.57

 

SG Blocks

SGBX

2/28/19

5

$6.25

$2.84

$0.27

 

H-Source Holdings

HSCHF

4/9/19

4

$0.19

$.06

$0.043

 

Generation Next Brands

VEND

4/10/19

3

$1.10

$.59

$0.10

 

Cavitation Technologies, Inc.

CVAT

8/22/19

4

$0.10

$.03

$0.09

 

Sigma Labs

SGLB

10/30/19

4

$1.70

$.51

$0.90

 

 

 

Initiation

 Termination 

 

Price

Initiation

Termination

Terminated Coverage

Symbol

Date

Date

Allocation

Target

Price

Price

ID Watchdog

IDW

10/13/16

8/28/2017

4

$0.42

$0.14

$0.40

GrowGeneration

GRWG

6/20/17

12/21/17

4

$3.40

$2.00

       $3.44  

Barfresh Food Group

BRFH

 

8/20/18

1

 

$0.55

$0.53

Semler Scientific

SMLR

12/27/17

11/7/18

    4

$15.00

$8.00

$31.99

New Jersey Mining

NJMC

4-18

5/16/19

           3

$0.30

$0.12

$1.31

Petroshare

PRHR

 

9/9/19

5

 

 

 

 

For complete details and assumptions please see the assumptions and explanations document Click Here

For a review and details on 2017 performance and model portfolio assumptions  Click Here

*Please note Dave Lavigne in the principal in Trickle Research and is also the editor of the Black Swan Connection Newsletter and an ongoing contributor to SMM.

 

November 25-19

COMPANY QUOTES, LISTINGS RESEARCH AND NEWS

Company

   

Premium

Research

News

(listing, quotes, news, research)

 

Profile

Updates

Updates

Alvopetro Energy, Ltd. (ALVOF)

 

Profile

  10/15/19

News

Antibe Therapeutics, Inc (ATBPF)

 

 Profile

11/11/18

News

AzuerRx Biopharma, Inc. (AZRX)

 

09/25/19

News

Camino Minerals Corp. (CAMZF)

 

04/06/18

News

Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)

 

Profile

 

News

Cavitation Technologies, Inc. (CVAT)

Profile

08/22/19

News

Clean Coal Technologies, Inc (CCTC)

Profile

 

News

Command Center , Inc. (CCNI)

   

11/13/18

News

Endurance Exploration Group, Ltd (EXPL)

 

 Profile

  03-26/19

News

FULLSHARE HOLDINGS LTD. (607) HK

 

09/07/18

News

Guangdong Land Holdings Limited (124) HK

09/06/19

News

H-Source Holdings, Ltd (HSCHF)

04/09/19         

News

Summit Wireless Technologies, Inc.

 

06/04/19

 

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX)

   

02/05/19

News

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Go to ValuEngine.com

    
 

November 22nd, 2019  by Paul Henneman

ValuEngine Market Valuation update for the week of November 22, 2019. Strong Buy pick is ticker PTC (Ptc Inc ). All data is updated. Read on for the full update. There will be no newsletter on 11/29/2019 due to the holiday, the blog will continue as usual the following week. Happy Thanksgiving!

www.ValuEngine.com to log in, or free two-week full trial. Over 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 plus industries covered every day.

 

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 36.58% of our stocks assigned a

valuation and 12.15% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.

Read Full Report

 

SMM Research Subscription Service.
Black Swan Research

Subscribers will get Real Time notification as Research Reports and updates are available as well as latest press releases and news on the companies covered.

Black Swan Research coverage is a compilation of some of the best independent providers of Micro Cap Research.  The service focuses on micro-cap companies that are typically not followed by Wall Street analysts.  In addition our subscription research service includes ValuEngine research on over 5,000 stocks with stock valuations, Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, and forecasted target prices.

 Click Here for Complete Description

See Below for current coverage and info regarding our Research providers

Trickle Research Click Here for More info>>

*Research on the following companies is available to BS Research or Trickle research subscribers only

  • Pure Cycle (PCYO)  -
  • Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)
  • Gold Resource (GORO)

Greenridge Global, LLC Click Here for More Info>>

ValuEngine Click Here for More Info >>

ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available.

To Subscribe Please click Here
 

 

Reg A or D 506(c)

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
727-823-3987
cdilley@smm.global

 


Event Calendar Updates

Not Much shaking for the Holidays!!


Carl Dilley
cdilley@smm.global

 

Visit our homepage for up to the minute Financial News, Quotes and our Latest Black Swan Connection Newsletter

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Note*  Our Instagram acct was recently hacked so we had to start over again.

We have also cleansed our email database of subscribers who haven’t opened for some time and or have errors or other delivery issues with their email.

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