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Black Swan Connection May 2019

Posted By Administration, Thursday, May 16, 2019

May 2019

                

 6,462     1,414       472         8           6


Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

Black Swan Connection Newsletter Signup

 

Breaking News

 

China is getting set to be our next big headache, but better to deal with them now than after they take over the world.

Cramer sees this differently than I do but either way it isn’t going to be good news for stock markets.

Jim Cramer May 13-19

Jim Cramer: You Better Strap Yourself In

All I can say is you better strap yourself in because, the next six months I expect to see tariffs on the other $300 billion we import from China because it's become clear that President Trump has decided that the U.S. simply shouldn't do business with China and if you do you are going to have to pay the price. It's a rather astounding proposition because China is such a huge trading partner, but the president has decided that our side doesn't get hurt nearly as much as their side, and the damage will be contained to a very few companies, namely A, B and C: Apple , Boeing and Caterpillar , all of which count on China's market for growth.

Read Complete Article

Donald Capital, LLC, A New Investment Bank Opens Its Doors

NEW YORK, May 16, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Donald Capital, LLC has launched today as a FINRA member Investment Bank. Founded with the intent to build a legacy based upon the fundamentals of honesty and integrity.

Donald Capital will focus on a market that has not been properly served for some time – the Private, Micro, Small & Mid Cap Markets. 

Co-founders Alex Hamilton and Don McDonald have launched several initiatives over their extensive careers to serve this part of the market.  They are very familiar with the challenges facing companies in this market and have the unique perspective to provide solutions.

Read Complete Press Release

 

Feature Article

May 2019

The Assault on Capitalism:

Be Careful What You Vote For

By: Dave Lavigne

As at least some who read my columns will probably recognize, inasmuch as I try to leave my political ideologies out of these market/business related articles, every now and then I let my right leaning mantra sneak into the discussion. To be fair, much of my ideology, at least from an economic perspective, is based on my affinity for capitalism, which I view as the most efficient, and frankly the “fairest” allocator of capital of the prevailing alternatives.  To edify, in the purest form the alternative to capitalism is government ownership and allocation of resources (“factors of production” in economic parlance), which is perhaps most often described as “socialism”. The reality is that most of the world deploys some sort of collaboration of the two, with some countries incorporating a larger portion of one versus the other, and most vacillating between the two as the political winds dictate. From a practical standpoint, while constituencies on each side of those ideologies spend a great deal of time extolling the virtues of their own (and rebuking those of the other), the fact is we don’t have a great deal of historical data to back test regarding a pure approach to either because, as I said, most of the world operates within the confines of some sort of combination of the two. With that said, I would submit, the economic track record of those employing a greater balance of capitalism than socialism is clearly better.

Click Here for complete Article

 4-30-2019 Greenridge Global Equity Research Issues Update Guangdong Land Holdings, Ltd. HKSE 0124

Portfolio Updates

Q1:19 Deliveries Relatively Light During Holiday Filled Quarter.  GDL released first quarter results, which showed Revenue of HK$181.18 million, After-tax Profit of HK$3,385,000 and Profit to Shareholders of HK$710,000.  Deliveries, as detailed below, were relatively light compared to our estimate for the first half, however we expect a pickup in the second quarter and continuing into the second half of the year.  Total outstanding bank loans was roughly flat from Q4:18, at HK$2,524 million. 

  • GDH City saw minimal increases in pre-sales during its first full quarter, from 2,857m2 at the end of December to 2,958m2 at the end of Q1.
  • Ruyingju had deliveries of 1,127m2 in the quarter, with an additional 146m2 of carpark spaces delivered.  Total GFA delivered at the end of Q1:19 stands at 93.1% of residential GFA and 46.2% for carpark GFA.
  • Laurel House delivered 2,027m2 in Q1:19, with 707m2 of the deliveries sold to original property owners on past pricing.  Total Laurel House residential GFA delivered through the first quarter totaled 7.6%.  Commercial property leasing talks continue, with 1,872m2 signed in the quarter.
  • Baohuaxuan saw deliveries of 102m2 in the first quarter, bringing total deliveries to 89.0%. 

AGM.  The AGM will be held on June 6, 2019 at 3pm in the Concord Room of the Renaissance Hotel in Wan Chai.

Model Update.  While deliveries and GDH City pre-sales were both on the lighter side in the first quarter, we are still quite optimistic on the second quarter and beyond.  As such, we are leaving our projections as is.

Maintaining Rating & Target.  With no changes to our model and continued progress on GDH City, we are reiterating our Buy rating and HK$4.75 target price on Guangdong Land.  Our target price is based on our DCF model that covers GDL’s entire project portfolio, discounted at 6.5%.

Read Full Report

4-18-19 Chardan Capital Issues Research Update Social Reality Inc. (SRAX)
Target Price $10.00

Chardan Capital Markets has released a new report on SRAX (Nasdaq: SRAX) setting a new price target of $10 following the recent BIGtoken user growth announcements.

BIGtoken's user growth has accelerated sharply recently with the number of global registered users increasing from 600,000 on April 1st to 11 million by April 7th and 15 million at April 15th.

Click Here For Complete Report

 

4-17-19 Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)
Canbiola Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Results
Annual Revenue Increased 445%, Maintained Gross Margin of 50%

HICKSVILLE, NY, April 17, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NEWMEDIAWIRE -- Canbiola, Inc. (OTCQB: CANB) (“Canbiola” or the “Company”), a developer, manufacturer and seller of a variety of Cannabidiol (Hemp) based products such as oils, creams, moisturizers, chews, isolate, gel caps, and concentrate, announced today operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2018.

Click Here for Complete Release

 

4-16-19 Trickle Research Issues Earnings Update Social Reality Inc. (SRAX)
12-24 Month Target Price $15.00

2SRAX reported Q4 and full year results, but as of this writing they have not filed the 10Kso there is not much available detail to the numbers beyond the major operating line items. We assume the late 10K is related to some restatements that apply to the past two years of filings and encompass the treatment of (non-cash) items largely with respect to financing derivatives. While we are never happy to see restatements, we don’t think this instance (other than the optic) is particularly telling from an operating standpoint. However, we will submit, even the limited amount of information regarding Q4, was enough to glean that it was below our expectations which were already dialed back from some of our prior numbers. On the other hand, there has been a lot going on at SRAX (which we will address in a moment), so we were not particularly focused on the Q4 numbers anyway. That said, there were a few takeaways from the year end call that require review. We will start with the “core” business and then move to BIGToken although frankly, inasmuch as we have tried, it is becoming more and more difficult to separate the two

Click Here for Report

4-16-2019 Greenridge Global Equity Research Issues Update Fullshare Holdings, Ltd. HKSE 0607

Related Company Debt Default Weighs Heavily On Near Term Outlook

Impact of Nanjing Fullshare’s Debt Default.  Media reports on December 26 noted Nanjing Fullshare Industrial Holding Group Co., Ltd. (“Nanjing Fullshare”) and its subsidiaries defaulted on payments of approximately RMB 1,278 million in debt due to tight financial liquidity.  Fullshare management indicated the source of the cash constraint for Nanjing Fullshare was that much of its Receivables were from SOEs for infrastructure projects and the payment on those Receivables were extended by the SOEs, thus creating a cash crunch.  Fullshare halted the stock on December 27 and lifted the halt on December 31 in conjunction with information about Nanjing Fullshare, who claimed all debts had been fully repaid, and its relationship with Fullshare Holdings.  Fullshare noted the controlling shareholder of Nanjing Fullshare is Ji Changrong, the younger brother of Chairman Ji Changqun, and that neither Fullshare Holdings nor Chairman Ji are shareholders of Nanjing Fullshare.  We note that Chairman Ji was listed as a Director and Chairman of Nanjing Fullshare since 2002, and had directly and indirectly owned 79.74% of the equity of Nanjing Fullshare as of Fullshare’s 2017 Annual Report.  However, Ji Changrong, Chairman Ji’s brother, now reportedly owns 62.6% of Nanjing Fullshare.  The extent of the operating relationship between Fullshare Holdings and Nanjing Fullshare is that Fullshare Holdings provides overseas management services and green buildings services to Nanjing Fullshare and has provided financial assistance to Nanjing Fullshare on two deals, the Wonder City pledge on a BoComm line and the Ma’anshan pledge on a third party loan. 

Since the announcement, Nanjing Fullshare changed its name to Nanjing Jiangong Industrial Group Co., Ltd., (“Nanjing Jiangong”) and has begun a government-backed restructuring plan, which includes creditors being forced to continue providing capital to Nanjing Jiangong and forcing it to begin selling off non-engineering construction assets, of which it has many diverse holdings.  On March 29, Fullshare agreed to sell Ma’anshan Haixin Travel Investment Co. to a third party, which removes the Ma’anshan Project from Fullshare’s assets, thus removing the Company from the Saiqing pledge.  This leaves the Wonder City pledge as its only ongoing core financial relationship with Nanjing Jiangong.  While not directly tied to Nanjing Jiangong, Fullshare has been impacted by this as it no longer has easy access to its bank lines.  This may also make any potential sale of China High Speed much more difficult, especially if the buyer is not China-based.  These items will likely make it difficult for Fullshare to acquire traditional real estate development projects, distressed real estate projects or larger acquisitions.  We are also unsure what financial contribution Chairman Ji can provide Fullshare in the near term given his guarantees on Nanjing Jiangong-related debts and having pledged roughly two-thirds of his shares of Fullshare. 

 

See page 2 for a full discussion on Nanjing Fullshare and Fullshare Holdings.

Click Here for Report

4-10-19 Trickle Research Fiscal 2018 Command Center, Inc. (CCNI)
Earnings& Merger Announcement Update Update
12-24 Month Target Price $8.75

2Command Center’s posted quarter for Q4-F18, reflected revenues of $24.4 million which were $525,000 or about 2% above our estimates. Gross margins came in at 27%, which was easily the best margin performance of any quarter of the year. In fact we think we would need to go back to pre-2015 to find a better margin number. Consequently,(although not entirely) net income came in at$1.08 million crushing our estimate of $445,000. In our view that was a promising end to a year that had some challenges, including some extraordinary charges along the way that we still believe may have disguised some of the underlying value of the Company. That viewpoint brings us to the Company’s recent announcement regarding their merger with privately held staffing company Hire Quest. That announcement is included below, but here are some our observations regarding the transaction.

Click Here for Report

 

4-4-2019 Greenridge Global Equity Research Issues Update Guangdong Land Holdings, Ltd. HKSE 0124

GDL Portfolio Updates

  • GDH City (formerly referred to as the Buxin Project) is still developing on schedule, as roof sealing was completed on Phase 1 and foundation work had begun on Phase 2.  2,857m2 of the NW Land was sold in December 2018 after receiving pre-sale approval, which was before it started marketing the project earlier this year.  GDL announced it signed a strategic partnership with the Shanghai Diamond Exchange for the project and retained TeeMall to offer consultancy services for operations management and to help search for commercial tenants.  GDL also established a wholly-owned property management company to operate the GDH City Project.  Total development cost of the GDH City Project was HK$3,827 million at the end of 2018, up HK$789 million from the year ago period. 
  • Ruyingju Project delivered 415m2 of residential units in the second half, with an additional 2,324m2 of space contracted and waiting to be delivered.  It also began selling the car parking spaces in the Project, selling 3,646m2 of space and delivering 3,573m2, or roughly 44.4% of the total carpark GFA.  We expect the majority of the remainder will be delivered in 2019.
  • Laurel House Project (formerly known as Zhuguanglu) delivered 2,943m2, or 4.5% of total residential GFA, with another 1,139m2 sold and undelivered as of year end.  The Company is in the midst of leasing commercial space in this project.  We expect the majority of this project will be delivered in 2019, with a small amount of GFA, along with the carpark spaces, to be delivered in 2020.
  • Baohuaxuan delivered 680m2, bringing its total residential GFA delivered to 86.3%.  We expect the remainder of its GFA and most of the carpark spaces to be sold and delivered in 2019.

Model Update.  With GDH City moving along as scheduled and all other portfolio assets selling as expected we have made no changes to our model.

Maintaining Rating & Target.  We continue to believe Guangdong Land is trading at a significant discount to the value of its portfolio.  We expect this discount will be corrected by the market as GDH City continues to progress and other portfolio assets are developed and sold off.  With no operational headwinds in view we are reiterating our Buy rating and HK$4.75 target price on Guangdong Land.  Our target price is based on our DCF model that covers GDL’s entire project portfolio, discounted at 6.5%.

Read Complete Report

 

3-28-2019 Endurance Exploration Group, Inc. (EXPL)

Blue Water Ventures International, Inc. and Project Partner Endurance Exploration Group, Inc. Announce Preparations for 2019 Operations

Jacksonville, FL, March 28, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NEWMEDIAWIRE -- Blue Water Ventures International, Inc. (BWVI) and Endurance Exploration Group, Inc. (EXPL) announced today that preparations for field operations for 2019 are well under way. Multiple vessels with technical personnel and dive teams will be deployed to the Carolinas in the 2nd Quarter which coincides with the return of good weather to the region.

Initial field operations will include a thorough archaeological study of the area in and around the site of the SS North Carolina, a paddle wheeler steamship that was lost in 1840.  The SS North Carolina is similar in many respects to the SS Pulaski, they were both built around the same time, sank only two years apart, were both involved in the packet trade, they traveled the same routes, serviced the same types and classes of clientele, and would have carried similar cargoes of age and quality. 

Click Here for Report

 

3-11-19 Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)

Canbiola is Registered and Active in the GSA’s System for Award Management (SAM) and Department of Defense (DOD)

HICKSVILLE, NY, March 11, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NEWMEDIAWIRE -- Canbiola, Inc. (OTCQB: CANB) (“Canbiola” or the “Company”), a developer, manufacturer and seller of a variety of Cannabidiol (Hemp) based products such as oils, creams, moisturizers, chews, isolate, gel caps, and concentrate, announced today that it is now registered and active in the U.S. government GSA’s System for Award Management (SAM) and Department of Defense (DOD).

The System for Award Management (SAM) is an official website of the U.S. government. There is no cost to use SAM. GSA’s Office of Government-wide Policy is consolidating federal procurement and award systems into 1 new system—the System for Award Management (SAM). SAM is streamlining processes, improving data quality by eliminating the need to enter the same data multiple times, and consolidating hosting to save taxpayer money.

Click Here for Report

 

2-26-19 Trickle Research issues update of AzurRx Biopharma, Inc. (AZRX) 12-24 Month Price Target $10.25

2Today, Oppenheimer and Co. Upgraded their price target for AzurRx shares from $6 to $8. Much of the upgrade was based on two things; first, the enrolling/initiation of the cystic fibrosis trial(we have discussed that in prior research), and some telling channel checking they did amongst physicians to determine their likelihood to prescribeMS1819to their patients in the event of an approval. Obviously, given their price target bump, that polling resulted in favorable enough responses that apparently lead Oppenheimer to conclude that the drug could achieve penetration than they originally projected(they estimate 25% of the market(currently $1.2B)by 2029).

Click Here for Report

 

2-9-19 Trickle Research Issues Earnings Update Social Reality Inc. (SRAX)
12-24 Month Target Price $9.25

Last week SRAX announced a new vertical called SRAXIR.

 

We're excited to announce SRAX has launched its new investor relations vertical offering, SRAX IR.

"SRAX IR is an exciting new vertical designed to assist publicly traded companies with understanding their shareholder base behavior," said Christopher Miglino, CEO and Chairman of SRAX. "Understanding who is buying and selling a company's stock and having the ability to communicate with those investors is an essential tool for every publicly traded company."

 

We have to admit, we didn’t see this coming but we think it is intriguing. Moreover, as a vertical aimed at investors and investor relations, we certainly have some insights about this particular new business. As we understand it, SRAX IR has two parts, the first of which is functional today, and the second which should be functional shortly. The first portion of the service provides public company’s a means to identify and keep track of their shareholder base. The approach involves gathering what are known in the industry as “NOBO”lists. NOBO stands for “non-objecting beneficial owners”, and the lists consist of shareholders who hold their shares with a broker (in “street name”) and are willing to allow the broker to share their names and addresses with those issuing companies so that they can communicate company developments with those same shareholders.

 

Click Here for Report

 

 

New Distribution Partner for SMM

In addition to our ongoing growth in distribution we have added a new very important distribution partner in Quote Media.

https://www.quotemedia.com/

They are the premier provider of quote and news services to the financial Industry in North America. They current have some 675 subscribers and publishers of their quote and news feeds including major stock exchanges like NASDAQ and the Toronto Stock Exchange and an extensive list of portfolio managers both in North America and abroad.

All Research updates, releases and news articles will automatically be uploaded from SMM to Quote Media through our RSS feed and will be then ticker tagged and distributed across the Quote Media network in real Time.

This will begin next week and is provided by SMM at no additional charge.

If you have any questions, please feel free to email or give me a call.

SMM Coverage-Special Situations

 

Elio Motors, Inc. (ELIO) $2.06 4-18-19

 

Nothing new- see report from last month.
 

SHORT- Elio Motors, Inc. –ELIO Nov-2016  $11.80  Dec 17-18 price $3.15 starting to slip slide away again. (nice chance to add to short if you can get a borrow on ELIO).  Last news was almost 5 months ago from company. Still on perpetual begathon for new reservations. Still needs $300 million plus another $545,000 to cover this fine, but reality is that this car cannot be built for the price he talks about.

Nothing new and no news now for 6 months- That’s NOT good news

Posted by u/snugglesdog

Elio fined $545,000

The Louisiana appeals court did not rule in favor for Elio. So the original fine stands at $545,000. Plus they have 60 days to prove that the non refundable reservations are in escrow, if not they get fined for that.

Court Document: https://law.justia.com/cases/louisiana/fifth-circuit-court-of-appeal/2019/18-ca-545.html

Beginning of the end… Hope Paul saved up some bail money, that’s coming next in this 3 wheel ponzi scheme…

 

 

 

April-19 MODEL PORTFOLIO FOR TRICKLE RESEARCH, LLC.:

 

 

Initiation

 

Price

Initiation

Price @

 

Stock

Symbol

Date

Allocation

Target

Cost Px.

5/13/2019

 

New Jersey Mining

NJMC

Multiple

3

$0.30

$0.12

$0.14

 

SRAX (Social Reality)

SRAX

Multiple

5

$9.25

$1.79

$4.89

 

Pure Cycle

PCYO

5/5/17

3

$12.00

$7.60

$9.91

 

Command Center

CCNI

9/8/17

5

$8.75

$4.44

$5.42

 

Endurance Exploration

EXPL

11/6/17

3

$0.29

$0.18

$0.10

 

Assure Holdings Corp.

ARHH

11/10/17

4

$6.00

$2.90

$1.24

 

AzurRx BioPharma

AZRZ

2/7/18

6

$10.25

$2.96

$2.58

 

Camino Minerals, Corp

CAMZF

4/6/18

4

$0.90

$0.26

$0.09

 

PetroShare Corp

PRHR

5/31/18

5

$2.65

$1.44

$0.34

 

Gold Resource Corp

GORO

7/30/18

5

$7.35

$6.49

$3.50

 

Summit Wirelss

WISA

9/28/18

4

$9.25

$4.30

$1.72

 

Alvoperto Energy, Ltd.

ALVOF

11/7/18

4

$1.10

$0.39

$0.40

 

SG Blocks

SGBX

2/28/19

4

$6.25

$2.84

$1.16

 

H-Source Holdings

HSCHF

4/9/19

4

$0.19

$.06

$0.06

 

 

 

Initiation

 Termination 

 

Price

Initiation

Termination

Terminated Coverage

Symbol

Date

Date

Allocation

Target

Price

  Price

ID Watchdog

IDW

10/13/16

8/28/2017

4

$0.42

$0.14

       $0.40

GrowGeneration

GRWG

6/20/17

12/21/17

4

$3.40

$2.00

$3.44  

Barfresh Food Group

BRFH

 

8/20/18

1

 

$0.55

$0.53

Semler Scientific

SMLR

12/27/17

11/7/18

          4

$15.00

$8.00

$31.99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For complete details and assumptions please see the assumptions and explanations document Click Here

For a review and details on 2017 performance and model portfolio assumptions  Click Here

*Please note Dave Lavigne in the principal in Trickle Research and is also the editor of the Black Swan Connection Newsletter and an ongoing contributor to SMM.

 

May 10-19

COMPANY QUOTES, LISTINGS RESEARCH AND NEWS

Company

   

Premium

Research

News

(listing, quotes, news, research)

 

Profile

Updates

Updates

Aethlon Medical, Inc. (AEMD)

 

Profile

   

Alvopetro Energy, Ltd. (ALVOF)

 

Profile

11/13/18

News

Antibe Therapeutics, Inc (ATBPF)

 

 Profile

11/11/18

News

AzuerRx Biopharma, Inc. (AZRX)

 

02/26/19

News

Camino Minerals Corp. (CAMZF)

 

04/06/18

News

Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)

 

Profile

 

News

Clean Coal Technologies, Inc (CCTC)

Profile

 

News

Command Center , Inc. (CCNI)

   

11/13/18

News

Endurance Exploration Group, Ltd (EXPL)

 

 Profile

  03-26/19

News

FULLSHARE HOLDINGS LTD. (607) HK

 

09/07/18

News

Galaxy Gaming, Inc. (GLXZ)

 

 Profile

   

Guangdong Land Holdings Limited (124) HK

04/04/19

News

Magnegas, Inc. (MNGA)

     

News

MOBI724 Global Solutions, Inc. (MOBIF)

   

News

Petroshare Corp. (PRHR)

 

08/23/18

 

Summit Wireless Technologies, Inc.

   

12/03/18

News

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX)

   

02/05/19

News

 

Go to ValuEngine.com

 

    
 

 

May 10, 2018  by Paul Henneman

ValuEngine Market Valuation update for the week of May 10, 2019. Stock pick of the week is RNG (Ring Central, Inc). Sector Valuations updated across all 16 sector groups. Valuations are showing a bit better after the market pull back this week, with 60% of stocks covered now undervalued.

 

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 40.38% of our stocks assigned a

valuation and 14.44% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.

Read Full Report

 

 

SMM Research Subscription Service
Black Swan Research

Subscribers will get Real Time notification as Research Reports and updates are available as well as latest press releases and news on the companies covered.

Black Swan Research coverage is a compilation of some of the best independent providers of Micro Cap Research.  The service focuses on micro-cap companies that are typically not followed by Wall Street analysts.  In addition our subscription research service includes ValuEngine research on over 5,000 stocks with stock valuations, Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, and forecasted target prices.

 Click Here for Complete Description

See Below for current coverage and info regarding our Research providers

Trickle Research Click Here for More info>>

*Research on the following companies is available to BS Research or Trickle research subscribers only

  • Pure Cycle (PCYO)  -
  • Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)

Greenridge Global, LLC Click Here for More Info>>

Consilium Global Research Click Here for More Info>>

Falcon Strategic Research Click Here for More Info>>

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ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available.

To Subscribe Please click Here
 

 

Reg A or D 506(c)

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
727-823-3987
cdilley@smm.global


 

Event Calendar Updates

Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference IV
May 7, 2019
GVC Capital-Trickle Research

The conference was well attended and a great success by any measure.

We’ll have some updates shortly

Please drop me a line if you’d like to attend or present your company
Carl Dilley
cdilley@smm.global

 

Visit our homepage for up to the minute Financial News, Quotes and our Latest Black Swan Connection Newsletter

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