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Black Swan Connection: September 2018

Posted By Administration, Thursday, September 20, 2018

September 2018

                

 6,462     1,414       472       131        6


Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

 

Breaking News

Greenridge Global LLC issues update 9-6-18
Full Share Holdings (HK:607)
target $4.00

Nearing Resolution On CHS Deal

China High Speed Sale Update.  Fullshare has begun selling off non-core assets as required under the prospective deal.  Absent this, there has been little in the way of updates as Neoglory Prosperity Inc. [SZ: 2147] works on financial and regulatory issues on its end.  The potential sale will be terminated if a formal sale and purchase agreement is not entered into by September 30, 2018.  The outcome of this potential deal will have a significant impact on the future makeup of Fullshare. 

H1:18 Underperforms on CHS Weakness.  Fullshare reported H1:18 Revenue of RMB 3,883.89 million, a 19.7% decline from the year ago period.  China High Speed, which produces the bulk of the Company’s Revenue, saw sales decline 11.0% year-over-year, to RMB 3,466.79 million.  The decline was led by a 14.4% decline from its wind gear business.  Property sales fell sharply from the year ago period, as fewer projects saw deliveries during the first half of 2018.  Gross margins fell to 23.0% from 24.8% due to the lower Sales at CHS, where margins fell to 23.0% from 30.8% in the year ago period.  Fullshare reported a fair value change in financial assets of RMB 855.18 million, of which RMB 741.15 million was attributable to the share price increase of Zall Group [HK: 2098].  SG&A fell to RMB 845.52 million, from RMB 914.08 million in the year ago period.  Other Income of RMB 434.11 million was primarily from interest and investment income, while Other Expenses of RMB 71.05 million included a RMB 66.0 million impairment on its Hin Sang Group holdings [HK: 6893] investment.  Finance expenses increased to RMB 499.56 million on higher interest payments from CHS.  Net Profit for the period was RMB 550.60 million, or RMB 2.79 per share.

Model Update.  We made a number of changes to our model, including reducing the Revenue outlook, in large part because of recent CHS performance.  As noted previously, our model could change substantially based on the outcome of the proposed CHS deal.  Also of note is the share price of Zall has tumbled thus far in the second half of 2018, which if the price stays in this area would produce a multi-billion RMB loss in H2:18.

Maintaining Rating & Target.  As we wait for the outcome of the proposed CHS deal, Fullshare management has been deploying capital into targeted tourism investments, the education sector and the distressed real estate market, all of which should lift future earnings.  Based on information currently available, we are reiterating our Buy rating and HK$4.00 target price on Fullshare Holdings.  Our target price is based on a discount model, which assumes Fullshare will acquire RMB 1.5 billion of EBITDA annually, at 5x EBITDA that will grow 15% per year, discounted at 6% annually.

Greenridge Global LLC issues update 8-3-18
Guangdong Land Holdings
target $4.75

Click Here for Research Note

GZ Acquisitions Close After H1:18 Results.  GDL reported H1:18 Revenue of HK$10.42 million, which was comprised of HK$8.87 million from the sale of old staff quarters and HK$1.55 million of rental income.  Higher Selling Expenses of HK$7.77 million were related to the pre-sale activity of the Buxin project, while Administrative Expenses of HK$40.94 million were up due to the fees incurred surrounding the Baohuaxuan and Zhuguanglu Project acquisitions, which closed on July 11.  This was partially offset by HK$28.90 million in interest-related income.  Income taxes of HK$74.57 million included HK$77.17 million of over-provided land appreciation tax that was reversed following tax clearance from local tax authorities.  Net Income for the period was HK$62.40 million, or HK$3.65 cents per share.

Trickle Research Issues Earnings Update 8-23-18
PetroShare Corp 
12-24 Month Price Target $3.20
Click Here for Research Note

PetroShare had a much better quarter than we anticipated. We think its safe to say, that was the best quarter of their nascent existence. Keep in mind, the quarter did not include any contributions from Shook, which will commence in Q3, so all of the revenue was associated with small non-operated interests in the wells of others. To be honest, it’s a bit difficult to try projecting their participation in non-operated assets because they essentially amount to small fragments of a number of wells. Regardless, they realized more production than we were projecting from the non-operated segment, and interestingly enough, the numbers were also positively impacted by a good mix of oil to gas/NGL. Oil revenues were nearly 65% of the total, which was considerably better than the sub 40% oil mix for Q1F18. That was the best oil/gas ratio they have reported since the same quarter last year. Obviously, higher oil mix can be impactful in times of high relative oil prices. Again, we wish we could find a way to better project the non-operating segment in general, however, we expect the focus going to shift toward operated assets, so much of that difficulty should become less relevant as we move forward.

Trickle Research Discontinues Coverage
Barfresh Food Group Inc. (BRFH) *Premium »

 

Feature Article

All that Gitters Isn’t Gold.. But it Might Be.

By: Dave Lavigne

For those who read this column even occasionally, it will be no surprise if I suggest (reiterate) that I have worried for some time now over the lengthy path the Fed and other central banks have taken to accommodate economic recovery, which is now being measured in decades rather than months or even years. Moreover, as industry titan Jeff Gundlach of Doubleline Capital has been noting of late, the US government’s

willingness to further relax fiscal policy (read: continue to increase the debt) seems counterintuitive to an environment where the Fed expects to continue to (albeit guardedly) raise rates. Gundlach sums those thoughts as follows:

“...The US also appears to be headed into uncharted territory -at least for US fiscal policy -regarding the relationship between interest expense and the debt level. As shown in Exhibit 11, interest expense considerably exceeded the current level during the late 1980s and early 1990s, though the debt level was moderate. By contrast, the debt level was slightly higher during and just after World War II than it is today, while the level of interest expense was similar. However, we project that, if Congress continues to extend existing policies, including the recently enacted tax and spending legislation, federal debt will slightly exceed 100% of GDP and interest expense will  rise to around 3.5% of GDP, putting the US in a worse fiscal position than the experience of the 1940s or 1990s...”

Read Complete Article

 

Latest Happenings

Tesla $290.02  – The heat is on Musk and growing

Bloomberg 9-18-18

Tesla shares sink on report of criminal probe
Now he’s in the hotseat

Tesla Inc. is under investigation by the Justice Department over public statements made by the company and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, according to two people familiar with the matter. The criminal probe is running alongside a previously reported civil inquiry by securities regulators.

See latest- Interview

 

SMM Original Recommendation

SELL Tesla, Inc. –TSLA Sept-2017   $376.00 Sept 18-18  price $290.02

If you’re short, stay short. On top of the criminal implications the fundamentals still don’t make sense and now there are indications that they will need additional capital which will put additional pressure on the stock.  Only downside for the foreseeable future.

 

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS FROM SMM

Special Situations -Recommended by C. Dilley (SMM)
 

SHORT- Elio Motors, Inc. –ELIO Nov-2016  $11.80  Sept 18-18 price $4.69  (nice chance to add to short if you can get a borrow on ELIO). Still begging for money. This is never going to happen.

SELL Tesla, Inc. –TSLA Sept-2017   $376.00 Sept 18-18  price $290.02

I am still extremely negative if not closed out short- stay short

 

 

September 15-18 MODEL PORTFOLIO FOR TRICKLE RESEARCH, LLC.

 

Initiation

 

Price

Initiation

Price @

 

Stock

Symbol

Date

Allocation

Target

Cost Px.

9/10/2018

 

New Jersey Mining

NJMC

Multiple

5

$0.30

$0.12

$0.17

 

SRAX (Social Reality)

SRAX

Multiple

5

$7.50

$1.79

$4.54

 

Pure Cycle

PCYO

5/5/17

3

$12.00

$7.60

$11.475

 

Command Center

CCNI

9/8/17

4

$9.60

$4.44

$5.60

 

Endurance Exploration

EXPL

11/6/17

3

$0.29

$0.18

$0.19

 

Assure Holdings Corp.

ARHH

11/10/17

1

$5.75

$2.90

$1.86

 

Semler Scientific

SMLR

12/27/17

3

$15.50

$8.00

$30.02

 

AzurRx BioPharma

AZRZ

2/7/18

5

$10.25

$2.96

$2.59

 

Camino Minerals, Corp

CAMZF

4/6/18

4

$0.90

$0.26

$0.087

 

PetroShare Corp

PRHR

5/31/18

4

$3.20

$1.44

$1.35

 

Gold Resource Corp

GORO

7/30/18

4

$8.85

$6.49

$5.04

 

 

 

Initiation

 Termination 

 

Price

Initiation

Termination

Terminated Coverage

Symbol

Date

Date

Allocation

Target

Price

  Price

ID Watchdog

IDW

10/13/16

8/28/2017

4

$0.42

$0.14

$0.40  

GrowGeneration

GRWG

6/20/17

12/21/17

4

$3.40

$2.00

$3.44

Barfresh Food Group

BRFH

 

8/20/18

1

 

$0.55

$0.53

 

For complete details and assumptions please see the assumptions and explanations document Click Here

For a review and details on 2017 performance and model portfolio assumptions  Click Here

 

*Please note Dave Lavigne in the principal in Trickle Research and is also the editor of the Black Swan Connection Newsletter and an ongoing contributor to SMM.

 

 

 

 

Published by:
Stock Market Manager
www.smm.global
All rights reserved

Editor:
David Lavigne
dave@t4partners.com
720-394-1019                 

CEO:
Carl Dilley
Cdilley@smm.global
727-823-3987 

SMM Distribution Update

Distribution (Reach)

SMM Global Twitter Acct     (Impressions last 30 days)      1,414

SMM Global Facebook Page  (Reach last-30 days)              6,462
             
SMM Linkedin Page              (contacts)                             472

SMM Youtube Channel         (followers)                                6

SMM Instagram                   (followers)                           131      

Direct Email                                                                 345,000

Total                                                                             353,485

 

Sept 15-18

COMPANY QUOTES, LISTINGS RESEARCH AND NEWS

Company

     

Premium

Research

News

(listing, quotes, news, research)

     

Profile

Updates

Updates

Aethlon Medical, Inc. (AEMD)

 

Profile

   

Assure Holdings, Inc. (ARHH)

   

5-29-18

News

Antibe Therapeutics, Inc (ATBPF)

 

 

 

News

AzuerRx Biopharma, Inc. (AZRX)

 

5-2-18

News

Camino Minerals Corp. (CAMZF)

 

4-6-18

News

Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)

     

News

Chineseinvestors.com, Inc. (CIIX)

Profile

 

News

Command Center , Inc. (CCNI)

   

8-15-18

News

Endurance Exploration Group, Ltd (EXPL)

 

     Profile

1-25-18

News

Ecom Products Group (EPGC)

     

News

FULLSHARE HOLDINGS LTD. (607) HK

 

9-7-18

News

Galaxy Gaming, Inc. (GLXZ)

 

     Profile

   

Guangdong Land Holdings Limited (124) HK

9-3-18

News

Magnegas, Inc. (MNGA)

     

News

MOBI724 Global Solutions, Inc. (MOBIF)

   

News

New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC)

 

   5-17-18

News

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX)

   

8-16-18

News

Zynex, Inc. (ZYXI)

 

 

8-9-18

News

 

Go to ValuEngine.com

 

Sept 10, 2018 by Steve Hach

For today's bulletin, we take a look at Nike $NKE and provide a link to download a FREE STOCK REPORT on the company.

--Kneeling for Nike

ValuEngine Rates Nike a BUY

Nike, Inc., (NKE) based near Beaverton, Oregon, is the world's leading designer, marketer and distributor of authentic athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for a wide variety of sports and fitness activities. Wholly-owned NIKE, Inc. subsidiary brands include Converse, which designs, markets and distributes athletic lifestyle footwear, apparel and accessories; and Hurley, which designs, markets and distributes surf and youth lifestyle footwear, apparel and accessories.

Click Here for Full Report

 

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 50.57% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 20.44% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.

Nine sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

 

 

SMM Research Subscription Service
Black Swan Research

Subscribers will get Real Time notification as Research Reports and updates are available as well as latest press releases and news on the companies covered.

Black Swan Research coverage is a compilation of some of the best independent providers of Micro Cap Research.  The service focuses on micro-cap companies that are typically not followed by Wall Street analysts.  In addition our subscription research service includes ValuEngine research on over 5,000 stocks with stock valuations, Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, and forecasted target prices.

 Click Here for Complete Description

See Below for current coverage and info regarding our Research providers

Trickle Research Click Here for More info>>

*Research on the following companies is available to BS Research or Trickle research subscribers only

  • Pure Cycle (PCYO)  -
  • Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)

Greenridge Global, LLC Click Here for More Info>>

Consilium Global Research Click Here for More Info>>

Falcon Strategic Research Click Here for More Info>>

Catalyst Research Management Group Click Here for more Info>>

ValuEngine Click Here for More Info >>

ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available.

To Subscribe Please click Here
 

 

Reg A or D 506(c)

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
727-823-3987
cdilley@smm.global


Event Calendar Updates

Trickle Research and GVC Capital
Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference October 9, 2018.
BlackHawk, Colorado at Ameristar Resort

On October 9, 2018, we will be holding Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference III.  The Conference will be held at the Ameristar Casino Resort Spa in Blackhawk, Colorado.  The agenda will be limited to just 13 public microcap companies.  The companies will present on a single track and each will be allotted a 25-minute presentation slot.  We hope to attract approximately 65-75 microcap investors, institutions and bankers who are close associates, clients and/or Trickle Research subscribers. Our spring conference had around 80 investor attendees).  We believe we will once again assemble a group of highly relevant microcap centric attendees.

Read More

 

Dawson James Securities 
Small Cap Growth Conference Oct 29-30
Wyndham Grand Hotel –Jupiter Florida

Full Day--Two Track Presentations from over 30 Companies in Healthcare/Technology & Consumer Sectors

Uplist “Bootcamp” for Invited Guests

Monday Evening Panel/Welcome Cocktails

Last Year’s event was attended by over 250 of our Institutional, Family Office and High Net Worth Clients

Click Here to Register
 

NIBA New York Conference Oct 31- Nov-1

We’ll be attending, as long standing members, and ready to assist and make introductions.
If anyone would like to set up a meeting to discuss our services or any related matters, please email me at cdilley@smm.global.

The National Investment Banking Association (NIBA) is proud to host its 145th investment conference on Oct 31- Nov-1, 2018 at the Crown Plaza at Times Square in New York City.  

If you would like to make a corporate presentation Click Here to download the Presenting Company Application

To register as an attendee click the button below.

 


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