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Black Swan Connection August 2018

Posted By Administration, Wednesday, August 22, 2018

August 2018

                

 6,462     1,414       472       131        6


Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

 

Breaking News

 

Trickle Research Issues Research Note 8-15-18 
Command Center, Inc.  
12-24 Month Price Target $9.60
Click Here for Research Note

For 2QF18, Command Center (“CCNI”) missed our revenue estimate by about $1.5 million or about 5.5% and they reflected eps of $.11 versus our estimate of $.16. Obviously, the bottom line miss was an extension of the top line miss. Much like Q1, revenues were essentially flat for the year-over-year quarterly comp. The earnings call was largely uneventful as (new) management basically reiterated the notion that they do not intend to implement any broad new strategies (acquisitions for example), but rather, they intend to focus on improving the core business at the store level, which they believe can yield some progress on both revenue growth and the expenses. Frankly, we don’t know what to expect from that guidance, but we will reiterate what have said in the past regarding new CEO Rick Coleman, principally, that we think he is solid and we are willing to hang in here to see if he can indeed wring some additional positive results out of the existing business. We would add, we do think they will continue to add some stores here and there (much like they have over the past several quarters) so we are modeling some (very) modest expansion in that regard.

Trickle Research Issues Research Note8-16-18 
Social Reality, Inc.  
12-24 Month Price Target $8.50
Click Here for Research Note

The 2QF18 earnings call was largely dominated by the news of the SRAXmd sale. We provided some color on that in some recent notes so we will try not to rehash that, but, to reiterate the main point, the SRAXmd sale is a considerable milestone for the company on a variety of levels. Certainly, one of the more important of those levels is the notion that they have proven they can build and monetize a vertical, so now the question becomes can they continue that trend with the existing verticals they are developing. Below is a brief overview of each of these verticals and some notes regarding their stage of development as we understand them.

Consilium Global Research Issues Quarterly Update 8-7-18
Price Target $7.00 >> For Quarterly Update >> Read More
Zynex is the leading provider of Electrotherapy Medical Devices used for pain management and rehabilitation.

The company is also pioneering development of an Innovative Blood Volume Monitor.

Conclusion Our investment thesis is intact and we are glad to see that the on-going paradigm shift at ZYXI is proving beneficial to investors. As a result of our new foreacsts we our leaving our fair value estimate of $7 unchanged, which assumes ZYXI can achieve an EV/EBITDA of 19.1x (15.8x previously), 17.6x P/E (17.1x previously) and EV/Sales of 5.6x (unchanged). Given the increased predictability/stability of the financials, we believe the modest change to the target multiples is appropriate.

 

Feature Article

Upcoming Microcap Conferences to Consider

By: Dave Lavigne

The dog days of summer are winding down, which generally means its time to start getting back to work (in earnest). On the other hand, look back over the summer (at least to this point) the stock market hasn’t acted like it was on vacation; as the S&P has advanced 3.6% since June 1st.  On the back of the napkin, that annualizes to something like 19%, and the index has traded to within about 50 basis points of its all time high from late January (2018).  The “dog days” have not been that dogged at all. 

Regardless, there is a sort of “back-to-the-grindstone” feel to the end of the summer, and here we are.

In the vein of getting back to work, as some readers may know, I co-sponsor  a microcap research conference series we refer to as the “Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference”.   I co-sponsor the conferences with some friends of mine; GVC Capital LLC, which is a small Denver, Colorado based microcap investment bank.  GVC has raised several millions of dollars for small emerging companies over the years, some of which have become prolific stories. 

Read Complete Article

 

Latest Happenings

Tesla $305.50  – The heat is on Musk and growing

A few of the latest headlines-
-No 'sound investor' would want Elon Musk to remain CEO of Tesla, says former GM exec Bob Lutz

-Tesla shares are getting slammed after Elon Musk's off-kilter interview with the NYT

- Odey Says Tesla Feels Like It's Entering Final Stage of Life

- In Musk We Trust: Can Tesla Survive Without Its Leader?

Elon Musk Has Lost It and Must Consider Bringing In Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg

 

 

SMM Original Recommendation

SELL Tesla, Inc. –TSLA Sept-2017   $376.00 Aug 17-18  price $305.50

If you’re short, stay short. If the pressure mounts to the point that Musk leaves, Tesla is in big trouble. He is the guiding light with a monster checkbook. Withoput him, regardless of what you think of his acumen as a CEO and leader, this will go from bad very much worse.

 

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS FROM SMM:

Special Situations -Recommended by C. Dilley (SMM)
 

SHORT- Elio Motors, Inc. –ELIO Nov-2016  $11.80  Aug17-18 price $4.80  (nice chance to add to short if you can get a borrow on ELIO)

SELL Tesla, Inc. –TSLA Sept-2017   $376.00 Aug 17-18  price $305.50

Short sale recommendation terminated. I am still extremely negative and not the least of that concerns the big push to self-driving cars.  

If not closed out short- stay short

 

 

June -15-18 MODEL PORTFOLIO FOR TRICKLE RESEARCH, LLC.

 

Initiation

 

Price

Initiation

Price @

 

Stock

Symbol

Date

Allocation

Target

Cost Px.

8/10/2018

 

New Jersey Mining

NJMC

Multiple

5

$0.30

$0.12

$0.183

 

Barfresh

BRFH

3/24/17

4

$1.15

$0.61

$0.56

 

SRAX (Social Reality)

SRAX

Multiple

5

$7.50

$1.79

$4.84

 

Pure Cycle

PCYO

5/5/17

4

$12.00

$7.60

$10.75

 

Command Center

CCNI

9/8/17

4

$9.60

$4.44

$5.70

 

Endurance Exploration

EXPL

11/6/17

3

$0.29

$0.18

$0.20

 

Assure Holdings Corp.

ARHH

11/10/17

4

$5.75

$2.90

$2.30

 

Semler Scientific

SMLR

12/27/17

4

$15.50

$8.00

$23.35

 

AzurRx BioPharma

AZRZ

2/7/18

5

$10.25

$2.96

$2.30

 

Camino Minerals, Corp

CAMZF

4/6/18

4

$0.90

$0.26

$0.11

 

PetroShare Corp

PRHR

5/31/18

4

$3.20

$1.44

$1.50

 

Gold Resource Corp

GORO

7/30/18

4

$8.85

$6.49

$5.69

 

   

Initiation

 Termination 

 

Price

Initiation

 Termination 

Terminated Coverage

Symbol

Date

Date

Allocation

Target

Price

 Price

ID Watchdog

IDW

10/13/16

8/28/2017

4

$0.42

$0.14

$0.40

GrowGeneration

GRWG

6/20/17

12/21/17

4

$3.40

$2.00

$3.44

 

For complete details and assumptions please see the assumptions and explanations document Click Here

For a review and details on 2017 performance and model portfolio assumptions  Click Here

*Please note Dave Lavigne in the principal in Trickle Research and is also the editor of the Black Swan Connection Newsletter and an ongoing contributor to SMM.

 

 

 

 

Published by:
Stock Market Manager
www.smm.global
All rights reserved

Editor:
David Lavigne
dave@t4partners.com
720-394-1019                 

CEO:
Carl Dilley
Cdilley@smm.global
727-823-3987 

SMM Distribution Update

 

Distribution (Reach)

 SMM Global Twitter Acct     (Impressions last 30 days)     1,414

 SMM Global Facebook Page  (Reach last-30 days)             6,462
             
 SMM Linkedin Page                (contacts)                          472

 SMM Youtube Channel            (followers)                           6

 SMM Instagram                      (followers)                       131      

              Direct Email                                                                 345,000

             Total                                                            353,485

 

June 15-18

COMPANY QUOTES, LISTINGS RESEARCH AND NEWS

Company

     

Premium

Research

News

(listing, quotes, news, research)

     

Profile

Updates

Updates

Aethlon Medical, Inc. (AEMD)

 

Profile

   

Assure Holdings, Inc. (ARHH)

   

5-29-18

News

Antibe Therapeutics, Inc (ATBPF)

 

 

 

News

AzuerRx Biopharma, Inc. (AZRX)

 

5-2-18

News

Camino Minerals Corp. (CAMZF)

 

4-6-18

News

Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)

     

News

Chineseinvestors.com, Inc. (CIIX)

Profile

 

News

Command Center , Inc. (CCNI)

   

8-15-18

News

Endurance Exploration Group, Ltd (EXPL)

 

     Profile

1-25-18

News

Ecom Products Group (EPGC)

     

News

FULLSHARE HOLDINGS LTD. (607) HK

 

2-2-18

News

Galaxy Gaming, Inc. (GLXZ)

 

     Profile

   

Guangdong Land Holdings Limited (124) HK

6-4-18

News

Magnegas, Inc. (MNGA)

     

News

MOBI724 Global Solutions, Inc. (MOBIF)

   

News

New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC)

 

   5-17-18

News

Pulse Evolution Corp. (PLFX)

   

9-18-17

News

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX)

   

8-16-18

News

Zynex, Inc. (ZYXI)

 

 

7-7-18

News

 

Go to ValuEngine.com

 

 

Aug 17, 2018 by Steve Hach

EDITOR'S NOTE: We will be on a limited publication schedule later this month. Bulletins will be reduced the weeks of August 20-24 (we will publish M-W) and September 3-7 (we will publish W-F). There will be no bulletins the week of August 27-31. We will return to our normal publication schedule the week of September 10th.

This week, we provide top-five ranked VE data for our Business Services Sector stocks. We take a look at our latest data on John Deere $DE and provide a free download link for our stock report on the company. 

Click Here>>

 

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 50.09% of our stocks assigned a

valuation and 20.27% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.

Nine sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

 

 

SMM Research Subscription Service
Black Swan Research

Subscribers will get Real Time notification as Research Reports and updates are available as well as latest press releases and news on the companies covered.

Black Swan Research coverage is a compilation of some of the best independent providers of Micro Cap Research.  The service focuses on micro-cap companies that are typically not followed by Wall Street analysts.  In addition our subscription research service includes ValuEngine research on over 5,000 stocks with stock valuations, Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, and forecasted target prices.

 Click Here for Complete Description

See Below for current coverage and info regarding our Research providers

Trickle Research Click Here for More info>>

*Research on the following companies is available to BS Research or Trickle research subscribers only

  • Pure Cycle (PCYO)  -
  • Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)

Greenridge Global, LLC Click Here for More Info>>

Consilium Global Research Click Here for More Info>>

Falcon Strategic Research Click Here for More Info>>

Catalyst Research Management Group Click Here for more Info>>

ValuEngine Click Here for More Info >>

ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available.

To Subscribe Please click Here
 

 

Reg A or D 506(c)

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
727-823-3987
cdilley@smm.global

 


Event Calendar Updates

Trickle Research and GVC Capital
Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference October 9, 2018.
BlackHawk, Colorado at Ameristar Resort

On October 9, 2018, we will be holding Rocky Mountain Microcap Conference III.  The Conference will be held at the Ameristar Casino Resort Spa in Blackhawk, Colorado.  The agenda will be limited to just 13 public microcap companies.  The companies will present on a single track and each will be allotted a 25-minute presentation slot.  We hope to attract approximately 65-75 microcap investors, institutions and bankers who are close associates, clients and/or Trickle Research subscribers. Our spring conference had around 80 investor attendees).  We believe we will once again assemble a group of highly relevant microcap centric attendees.

Read More

 

Dawson James Securities 
Small Cap Growth Conference Oct 29-30
Wyndham Grand Hotel –Jupiter Florida

Full Day--Two Track Presentations from over 30 Companies in Healthcare/Technology & Consumer Sectors

Uplist “Bootcamp” for Invited Guests

Monday Evening Panel/Welcome Cocktails

Last Year’s event was attended by over 250 of our Institutional, Family Office and High Net Worth Clients

Click Here to Register

 

 

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