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Black Swan Connection April 2017

Posted By Tyler Horne, Monday, April 24, 2017


April 2017


Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

Staying connected to what matters most is our mission!


 

Learn more about RevenueStripe...
 
 

TOP NEWS

Newsletter From Dave Lavigne

The Rise of the Machines
(Greenwich real estate…look out below)

We have been doing some work the past couple of weeks on a name in the digital advertising space.  That work dovetailed into some additional comments we noticed from the financial news over the past week or so regarding the notion of machines replacing humans for any number of tasks. 

Our research considers some of the technologies shaping the digital advertising space including “machine learning”, “predictive marketing” and other sophisticated algorithms aimed at trying to figure out what consumers are going to do (and perhaps how to influence them) before they actually do it. Certainly, part of that process involves the collection of large amounts of data (“Big Data”), that gets collected along the way from a variety of activities we engage in on a daily basis.  Whether we like it or not, every time we use a credit card, or our supermarket rewards card, and much of what we do browsing around on our computers or engaging in social media on our cell phones, is being archived and somewhere along the line compiled per our devices, which we think is a clever way to get around those pesky personal information laws regarding the selling/sharing of personal information.  Apparently a “device” is not a person, thus the data collected from/about it is apparently not personal.  Read More…

Great Stuff from Dave Lavigne, as usual!!

As a brief ad on to Dave’s article this month, I happened to be at a cocktail party the other day and sharing a cold one with a friend who is a senior exec from one of our local ages old money management and mutual fund operators. They are not just old they are very big dogs in this business. When asked how things are going he tells me, “like crap and not getting better anytime soon or maybe ever”.  Surprised of course I get an explanation that goes something like this…”the first issue is that since the economic crisis there has been a net out flow of funds from most managed mutual fund and individually managed accts”. The second and fatal flaw in our system is that for some time ETF, index funds and now some computerized trading systems have been outperforming virtually all of the managed funds, except in specialty areas.

 

The bottom line being that these money managers and the associated fees are not actually adding value.

So, you say to yourself, no big deal, I’ll just buy ETF’s I guess and too bad about the poor portfolio managers who are all already rich anyway.

Not so fast…. There is a guy named Stephen Hawking, and echoed by many others of his ilk who have been saying for the past few years that artificial intelligence is the greatest existential threat to humanity. In the not terribly distant future technology will evolve to a point at which humanity will not be able to control its own creations, leading to the demise of our entire civilization.

"The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race," Hawking told the BBC in December 2014.

 These are not Trekkies talking like this …and by the way, they collectively have not offered the slightest idea of what we do to put this genie back in the bottle.

Is this a sign of the beginning of the end ?? Already we are seeing signs that the brightest in our midst are being outgunned by the computers we created. What day do we wake up and the computer decides that humans with all of our money grubbing, drinking, drug taking, polluting, insatiable habits for procreation and general energy wasting are simply an annoyance not to be tolerated any longer…………

Oh by the way, he also thinks we might destroy ourselves before that happens.

Sleep Tight……


Drain the Swamp

This was from the article I wrote in January regarding the SEC and its vast overreach and what hope there might be for the future of deregulation.

Well, today there is a new Sherriff in town and one of the Deputies, Jay Clayton will soon be head of the SEC. By all accounts he is an accomplished attorney who understands our capital markets very well.

From a recent article in the Washington Post:

He also would play a key role in Trump's efforts to dismantle parts of 2010’s financial reform legislation, known as the Dodd-Frank Act. Clayton brings “decades of experience helping companies navigate complex federal regulations” and would “play an important role in unleashing the job-creating power of our economy,” according to a statement issued by Trump’s transition office announcing Clayton's nomination. Read More…

 

Great Article from Laura Anthony this Month

The Acting SEC Chair Has Trimmed Enforcement’s Subpoena Power

In early February 2017, acting SEC Chair Michael Piwowar revoked the subpoena authority from approximately 20 senior SEC enforcement staff. The change leaves the Director of the Division of Enforcement as the sole person with the authority to approve a formal order of investigation and issue subpoenas. Historically, the staff did not have subpoena power; however, in 2009 then Chair Mary Shapiro granted the staff the power, in the wake of the Bernie Madoff scandal. Chair Shapiro deemed the policy to relate solely to internal SEC procedures and, as such, passed the delegation of power without formal notice or opportunity for public comment.

This is the beginning of what I expect will be many, many changes within the SEC as the new administration changes the focus of the agency from Mary Jo White’s broken windows policies to supporting capital formation. The mission of the SEC is to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly and efficient markets and facilitate capital formation. Although each mission should be a priority, the reality is that the focus of the SEC changes based on its Chair and Commissioners and political pressure. Mary Jo White viewed the SEC enforcement division and the task of investor protection as her top priority. Mike Piwowar and presumably Jay Clayton are shifting the top priority to capital formation. Read More..

 

Reg A Report

Update on Elio Motors (ELIO)
In spite of the stock price defying gravity (currently $8.00) and a press release saying they signed a deal to have AISIN group do something (who knows what exactly) there is no good reason I can see for the stock to even be trading still.  There has still been no announcement of substance regarding necessary funding. This little pig doesn’t even have lipstick.

These latest press releases saying they signed an agreement with someone legit, with absolutely no detail of any kind reminds me of a deal I was involved in years ago.

The company, as I recall, was making software for mobile devices. They announce they have signed a ,multi-year contract with Comcast. Sounds big,  right?  Turned out that while not being a bald-faced lie, the contract was for internet service for their office.  These latest deals smack of the same thing and my bet is if you could see these agreement they would say something like- they agree to build transmissions for the Elio, upon receiving an initial payment of $500k and on and on.  Most likely absolute baloney.  Add to your short positions on strength..

 

Latest news out of Louisiana, isn’t exactly an endorsement either-

According to KTBS in Louisiana, Louisiana representative Cedric Glover wants the state legislature to subpoena parties involved in the Elio deal to answer questions about why the start-up was chosen over Land Rover and Japanese manufacturer Daikin. From KTBS:

“All it takes is the agreement and the support of both Chairman Carmody and the Speaker of the House to give us the authority to do that,” said Glover.

On May 9th, Glover wants to question, under oath, the deal makers who let the chronically delayed Elio Motors into Shreveport’s former GM plant, including former Louisiana Director of Economic Development Stephen Moret, two members of Racer Trust - the government program created to find new uses for the old GM plants after the company filed bankruptcy and billionaire investor Stuart Lichter, who got the plant. Read More

Article from Reg A Money

This is a great article on Reg A from Ron Costa our partners at Reg A Funding Group.

Are Regulation A+ Offerings the Real Deal?

Back on June 19th, 2015, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved an amendment to Regulation A which allowed companies to raise up to $50 million dollars in capital in a 12-month time-frame. Dubbed by many a “mini-IPO” or an “IPOtogo”, the newly termed Reg.A+ was significant because it allows these companies to raise money quickly from both accredited and non-accredited investors without the requirements of a traditional IPO.

Its basis is in the Jobs Act of 2012, which was a bill passed to stimulate economic growth and U.S. job creation by lessening access requirements to capital markets for small businesses. As with most new things, Regulation A+ started out slowly but has been steadily gaining momentum as the vehicle of choice for equity crowdfunding. Any U.S. or Canadian company is eligible to create a Reg.A+ offering if they are not already subject to on-going reporting requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or that has not failed to file reports required by Regulation A over the last two years of their existence. Read More…

As the demand and new companies come on to get through and during registration we have been approached by several issuers to list and distribute news on Reg A and 506(c) offerings. To that end we have set up a new section on our website for that purpose.

 

Check often for new listings under the Public Offering Menu Item: http://www.smm.global/

 

Public Offering Listings :

Reg A

Myomo, Inc
TriPoint Global Equities is pleased to announce our latest transaction (www.banq.co/listings/myomo)   Myomo, Inc. seeks to raise up to $15 million under Regulation A+ of the JOBS Act and then, in succession and subject to New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) requirements, be listed on the NYSE MKT under the ticker “MYO”. 

Read More

 

Reg D 506(c)

Zero E Technologies
#GreenInvest.  Zero E has developed the ZEUS SmartMotor™ for tomorrow’s economy.  It has a built-in variable speed drive and IoT connectivity. Big advances--most efficient, smallest, most robust, smartest--aimed at fast growing segments: extreme efficiency, Internet, SE Asia. 506(c) offering for $2.5 million.  #1 solution to global warming.  Read More

 

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
    - 727-823-3987
    - cdilley@smm.global

 

A lot of Brokerage and other firms are now getting in the act.

First page of a Google search looks like the following. Keep in mind you don’t get on the first page unless you’re paying Google to make that happen.    Read More…..
 

Article on D & O insurance by David Herlands re:

What is the Appropriate Amount of D&O Insurance For My Company?

There is no definitive answer on how much Directors and Officers Insurance coverage a company needs. The reason being no one really ever knows how much they really need...until it is too late.

Like everything in life we take action when we need a product or service, this cost us twice as much if it is still available to access. Fortunately when working to attract new management and board members they will specify how much coverage they will require before they join your company. 

The same can also occur when raising funds for your company at any stage, the investors will require a certain amount of coverage before closing on a round of funding.

There are a myriad of benchmarks that an insured company could use when trying to determine what is an appropriate level of Directors and Officers Insurance limit of liability.

Read More…

Visit the Partner Pages

 

Event Calendar Updates

Lower right hand Corner of the Home Page

Great turnout in NY for NIBA conference next one is already on the calendar.

Marcum Conference next up-June 15-16 in New York for Details Click Here

Always a great turnout and we’ll be in attendance.  

NIBA Conference June 26-27 in New York for Details Click Here
 Now Open for registration
Click Here

Whether your company is seeking capital or to Increase Exposure, national Investment banking Conferences are right for you!
Read More…

Island Stock Transfer is a Sponsor and we’ll be there. Look for us at the Island Stock Transfer-Proxy and Printing Table

Published by:
Stock Market Manager
www.smm.global
All rights reserved

Editor:
David Lavigne
dave@t4partners.com
720-394-1019

CEO:
Carl Dilley
Cdilley@smm.global
727-823-3987 

The Black Swan 4-17 Index
Newsletter

ValueEngine April

New Company Profiles:
    Mobi724 Global Solutions

    The Waters Club

Premium Profiles:  
   ID Watchdog, inc.
   Endurance Explorations Group, Inc.
    Aethlon Medical, Inc.
    Galaxy, Gaming, Inc.

Research Reports:
  
New Jersey Mining Research Report 1-18-17
       -Research Earnings Update 4-17-17
   ID Wtachdog Research Report 10-13-16
       -Research Update 2-26-17

Corporate  News Updates
   
Endurance Explorations Group, Inc.
     -EXPL Article “The Deep”

    Iconic Brands, Inc.
     -ICNB announces Corporate Updates

   Magnegas, Inc.
      -Magnegas Charges ahead 7.69%

    New Jersey Mining
    - Trickle Research Earnings Updates 4-17-17
     -NJMC Pursues Pit Expansion at Golden Chest Mine


    True Nature Holding, inc.
   -True Nature Updates on Acquisitions, Growth Plans in Specialty Pharmacy, CBD Related Areas

    WRAPmail, Inc.
      -Wrapmail, Inc. Interview on KCAA radio morning Show

 

 

 

Go to ValuEngine.com
April 2017

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To subscribe to our bulletins and receive content whenever it is published, subscribe at our blog HERE

 

This week, we provide top-five ranked VE data for our Basic Materials stocks. We take a look at our latest data on Raytheon $RTN. We currently have an overvaluation watch underway.

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 63.25% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 24.25% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Fifteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

ValuEngine Index Overview

Index

Week Open

Friday PM

Change

% Change

YTD

DJIA

20665.17

20678.9

13.73

0.07%

4.64%

NASDAQ

5917.32

5883.56

-33.76

-0.57%

9.30%

RUSSELL 2000

1386.43

1364.87

-21.56

-1.56%

0.57%

S&P 500

2362.34

2358.73

-3.61

-0.15%

5.36%

 

ValuEngine Market Overview

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued

36.75%

Stocks Overvalued

63.25%

Stocks Undervalued by 20%

15.78%

Stocks Overvalued by 20%

24.25%

 

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector

Change

MTD

YTD

Valuation

Last 12-MReturn

P/E Ratio

Multi-Sector Conglomerates

-0.02%

-0.95%

5.62%

13.23% overvalued

15.51%

19.70

Industrial Products

0.67%

-0.85%

3.11%

12.77% overvalued

25.64%

24.31

Computer and Technology

0.42%

-1.62%

9.42%

12.59% overvalued

21.20%

30.77

Aerospace

0.48%

-0.05%

0.70%

12.49% overvalued

20.53%

19.83

Finance

0.45%

-0.67%

2.23%

11.18% overvalued

18.06%

17.57

Utilities

-0.03%

2.27%

6.82%

9.99% overvalued

18.93%

24.04

Consumer Staples

0.17%

-0.63%

3.47%

8.06% overvalued

10.40%

24.61

Construction

0.23%

-1.68%

6.85%

7.77% overvalued

20.33%

21.28

Business Services

0.32%

-1.17%

4.58%

7.01% overvalued

9.80%

24.01

Transportation

0.94%

-0.23%

4.44%

6.58% overvalued

21.07%

21.44

Basic Materials

0.36%

0.38%

7.07%

6.36% overvalued

48.43%

26.36

Oils-Energy

0.91%

1.17%

0.49%

4.94% overvalued

24.85%

30.84

Consumer Discretionary

0.49%

-0.92%

4.83%

4.70% overvalued

18.97%

25.71

Auto-Tires-Trucks

0.11%

-1.38%

4.43%

3.51% overvalued

25.12%

14.25

Retail-Wholesale

0.89%

-1.18%

1.32%

2.18% overvalued

5.58%

23.63

Medical

0.49%

-1.93%

7.97%

2.43% undervalued

7.04%

28.26

 


Sector Talk--Basic Materials

  Below, we present the latest data on Basic Materials stocks from our Professional Stock Analysis ServiceTop- five lists are provided for each category.  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares. 

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

Last 12-M Return (%)

VALE

VALE SA

9.16

-17.53%

123.41%

TECK

TECK RESOURCES

23.83

-11.33%

207.48%

MT

ARCELOR MITTAL

8.24

-11.62%

78.74%

AKS

AK STEEL HLDG

7.06

-7.61%

66.12%

TX

TERNIUM SA-ADR

26.12

1.62%

45.60%

 

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Momentum

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

Last 12-M Return (%)

CC

CHEMOURS COMPNY

37.72

N/A

416.01%

HCLP

HI-CRUSH PTNRS

17.75

-30.08%

257.86%

VEDL

VEDANTA LTD

16.9

N/A

220.68%

TECK

TECK RESOURCES

23.83

-11.33%

207.48%

MTL

MECHEL OAO ADS

5.81

N/A

205.79%

 

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

Last 12-M Return (%)

VALE

VALE SA

9.16

-17.53%

123.41%

TECK

TECK RESOURCES

23.83

-11.33%

207.48%

MT

ARCELOR MITTAL

8.24

-11.62%

78.74%

CLF

CLIFFS NATURAL

8.45

-15.51%

187.41%

AKS

AK STEEL HLDG

7.06

-7.61%

66.12%

 

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker

Name

Mkt Price

Valuation (%)

Last 12-M Return (%)

UAN

CVR PARTNERS LP

4.64

143.27%

-40.44%

ALB

ALBEMARLE CORP

106.03

67.11%

60.58%

AEM

AGNICO EAGLE

44.92

43.31%

23.00%

SQM

SOC QUIMICA MIN

36.5

42.49%

83.60%

FMC

FMC CORP

73

42.40%

92.76%

 

 

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, 
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

Raytheon Company (RTN) is a global technology company. The company provides products and services in the areas of defense and commercial electronics, engineering and construction, and business and special mission aircraft. Raytheon has operations throughout the United States and serves customers in numerous countries around the world.

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on Raytheon for 2017-04-06. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Raytheon has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Book Market Ratio. 

You can download a free copy of detailed report on Raytheon Company (RTN) from the link below.

Read our Complete Rating and Forecast Report on Raytheon (RTN) HERE.

ValuEngine Forecast

 

Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

150.66

-0.06%

3-Month

154.44

2.45%

6-Month

157.37

4.39%

1-Year

149.71

-0.69%

2-Year

184.27

22.24%

3-Year

203.85

35.22%

 

 

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

29.68% overvalued

Valuation Rank(?)

 15

1-M Forecast Return

-0.06%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

 45

12-M Return

18.61%

Momentum Rank(?)

 58

Sharpe Ratio

1.26

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

 97

5-Y Avg Annual Return

21.22%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

 90

Volatility

16.84%

Volatility Rank(?)

 77

Expected EPS Growth

8.96%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

 37

Market Cap (billions)

46.49

Size Rank

 98

Trailing P/E Ratio

21.44

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

 59

Forward P/E Ratio

19.68

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

 36

PEG Ratio

2.39

PEG Ratio Rank

 18

Price/Sales

1.93

Price/Sales Rank(?)

 50

Market/Book

4.62

Market/Book Rank(?)

 29

Beta

0.69

Beta Rank

 56

Alpha

0.12

Alpha Rank

 71

 

 

ValuEngine.com is an Independent Research Provider (IRP), producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 5,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day.
Contact ValuEngine at (800) 381-5576 or
 support@valuengine.com  
Visit www.ValuEngine.com for more information

 

 

New Company Profiles


MOBI724 GLOBAL SOLUTIONS INC (MOBIF)

MOBI724 Global Solutions Inc. is a Fintech leader in digital incentives (Card-Linked Offers, mobile couponing & loyalty rewards) and payment solutions (including mobile payment). The company is fully dedicated to deliver unique "real time" and seamless digital promotional incentives (Card-Linked Offers, Loyalty Rewards and Coupons), providing clients with full and comprehensive traceability, real time messaging, business intelligence and enriched consumer data. Its solutions enable card issuers, banks and retailers to create, manage, deliver, and "track & measure" incentive campaigns worldwide, and allow their redemption at ANY point of sale. MOBI724's PCI & EMV switch, with its robust technology and device agnostic connectivity, simplifies deployment, integration and introduces new payment and couponing solutions to the market and a new tool to monetize data insights. Issuers' goals of enabling cardholders to have friction-free purchasing experiences anywhere and accelerating the use of their payment cards, can be greatly enhanced by using MOBI724's Card-Linked Offer platform, solutions and expertise.

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE

Waters Club Holdings,Inc. –Private-going public

 

Waters Club Holdings,Inc. (“WCH”) is in the luxury yacht chartering industry and is planning to introduce are revolutionary Sharing Economy model to yachting.

WCH will form a membership-based Club with a fleet of yachts strategically located in the world’s leading cruising regions that members can share and use interchangeably for their yachting vacations.

The Club membership model --where affluent consumers share expensive assets --has been extensively utilized with success in other industry segments and has proved to be a far better alternative to “whole ownership” in other luxury markets, particularly private aviation and luxury vacation homes.

Click Here to Learn More

 
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