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Black Swan Connection December 2017

Posted By Administration, Friday, December 22, 2017

 

December  2017

Our goal with the Black Swan Connection is to provide our subscribers, investors and financial professional compatriots outstanding investment insight that is a step above and outside of what will normally be found in mainstream financial press. To that end we have brought together seasoned, successful, and some of the brightest professionals in their respective fields to provide the articles and advice that is based on decades of practice in the field.

Click Here if you’re not already registered for some reason or need to update your profile.

Happy Holidays!!!
Wishing everyone a happy and healthy holiday season and certainly a Prosperous New Year!

Image result for happy holidays

 

This month’s lead article is being provided by Mike Sheikh at Falcon Research.

Great piece for everyone trying to figure out what the H*** is this Bitcoin thing all about!!

11-27-17- Mike Sheikh-Falcon Research

Assessing the Impact of the Bitcoin Ecosystem

  • Many Players Dependent upon Bitcoin Eco System
  • Moore’s Law and Effect on Price of Bitcoin
  • Miners are Equivalent to Oil Cartels
  • Big Disparity in Market Capitalizations of Miners
  • Price Coupling to Bitcoin Beginning

Bitcoin is starting to dominate headlines and as it powers higher, investors want to know what exactly does this mean for portfolios.  The exploding price of bitcoin has ushered in a new crypto currency ecosystem.  Investors can draw parallels to the Apple (AAPL) ecosystem which includes suppliers of parts, retailers that sell hardware, telecom providers of bandwidth, and application developers that create useful utilities.  The point is if AAPL did well so did the whole ecosystem of interrelated companies.  If they did poorly the results tricked down and they were correlated.  The same thing is happening with bitcoin.  There is an ecosystem that surrounds bitcoin and drives innovation and productivity forward.  The computer graphics makers like Nvidia (NVDA) that make the CPU’s for the mining units have been growing full tilt.  Exchanges and money changers like CoinBase and Bittrex have started to see markets develop and in turn spurred the creation of funding mechanisms through Initial Coin Offerings (ICO’s).  The Blockchain is creating new industries and removing the inefficiencies of clearing transactions.  All of this is built on bitcoin.  The miners play a big part in this ecosystem providing the coins or raw materials for all of it to exist and new innovations in the Blockchain technology are fueling the growth in fin tech applications. Read More

 

RECAP SMM HAPPENINGS IN 2017

It’s been a great year and a big thank you to both our subscribers and Associate analyst for providing some great research on micro and small cap companies that is simply not available anywhere else. Our distribution has been steadily increasing and implementing a social media strategy is really starting to pay off with 10’s of thousands of new eyes on our featured companies the research provided.

In terms of what actually happened in 2017 from an investment standpoint we want to provide a detailed performance report that will be available in January when final year end numbers are in.

First of all we’ll cover Research provided by myself, Carl Dilley, on behalf of SMM.

A little background-

While not holding myself out as a practicing analyst, I have several decades experience in dealing with small cap companies and have been licensed at senior levels in Canada and the US be the respective securities regulators and as part of that completed the first two years of the CFA program. I have been following some special situations where I have a particular interest and understanding of the underlying business of the company overlaid with some high level financial analysis and due diligence.

 

Elio Motors    ELIO OTC QB

This was the first ever Reg A offering listed OTC and everyone in the securities industry had high hopes that this would be  a terrific deal that would set the stage for many more. Sadly that isn’t the case and upon getting under the hood it was clear to me that the chances of success for the company were about zero. The main reason is that the CEO, Paul Elio had blatantly lied about the price point at which the vehicle could be sold and misrepresented the technology, safety standards and fuel economy. That has been born out as the company has not been successful in raising even a small part of the $300 million it claims it needs to open it’s leased plant and has spent all the car deposit money mainly on advertising it seems. The concept of a three wheeled car utilizing a gas engine is fatally flawed as well.

I initially recommended shorting the stock at $11.80 and today it has traded as low as $2.05, which still gives the company a market cap of some $56 million. That’s is still about $350 million more than its worth if you look at the debt on the balance sheet. My bet is that it is going to zero, will be delisted at some point and the principals will end up being indicted for multiple counts of fraud.

 

Tesla, Inc.   TSLA NASDAQ

While you have to applaud Elon Musk and the very dep pockets and risk taking required to bring us into the electric car and truck future, you also have to use some basic common sense regarding what the company is worth. There will still need to be a gazillion dollars invested which will ultimately mean shareholder dilution and TESLA becomes the car company of the future. The current price of $335 a share puts them way ahead of Ford and GM and there is simply nor rationale for that. At some point this will be born out and the stock will be much lower than it is today. On the research side there are quite a few sheep still rating the company a buy, but more independent thinkers are coming up on the sell side including yours truly.

Again, not because I don’t love what they are doing, the company stock is simply overvalued.

I also believe that the hailed (FSD) full self-driving car/truck is way down the road. They don’t really believe they are “There” either: See links

The very thinly reported crash that killed the driver is and the reasons why are at the heart of the matter. The car is not the problem it is really the driver and the drivers of all those other cars that are not self-drivers. See Article

Please note that I am recommending a SELL not SHORT position in Tesla. I just feel the stock is ahead of where it should be and gains will be hard to come by in the near term, so if I owned it I would be a seller and buy in again at some point when it’s lower and the valuation makes sense.

The rationale being that in a technology company such as Tesla, not by accident named after arguably the greatest inventor ever, they could develop ground breaking technologies in battery, self-driving or any number of related sciences that would potentially be a game changer and drive the stock to new highs. Unlike Elio, this is a company with very smart, deep pocket backers and a short position could cost you dearly if we’re wrong.

 

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS RECAP FROM SMM.

Special Situations -Recommended by C. Dilley (SMM)
SHORT- Elio Motors, Inc. –ELIO Nov-2016  $11.80  current price $2.05  total return $9.75 or 82.6%

SELL Tesla, Inc. –TSLA Sept-2017   $376.00 current price $335.00  total return $41.00 or 10.9%

We’ll be recapping performance by the Contributing Analysts in the January edition, so we have a full year under our belt.

Published by:
Stock Market Manager
www.smm.global
All rights reserved

Editor:
David Lavigne
dave@t4partners.com
720-394-1019                 

CEO:
Carl Dilley
Cdilley@smm.global
727-823-3987 

SMM Distribution Update-

Distribution (Reach)            

SMM Global Twitter Acct     (Followers)                         498

SMM Global Facebook Page  (Reach last-30 days)     43,041

SMM Pinterest Page                                                          500

Direct Email                                                                296,000

Total                                                                             339,541

 

Great Cyber Security deal from our partners at Generali :

 
 

THE HOLIDAYS ARE PRIME-TIME FOR IDENTITY THIEVES

Luckily, we have you and your customers covered. 

Because this time of year is known for increased travel, increased spending, and an increased desire to give, consumers face an increased risk of identity theft.

HolidayScamCover-252940-edited.jpg

Our new e-book developed in partnership with the Identity Theft Resource Center, "Preventing Holiday Identity Theft Scams", fresh off the presses, is an easy guide to some of the most common identity threats seen during the season. It makes great shareable content and can help demonstrate your identity protection education commitment to your customers.

Download E-Book

 

How to Protect Yourself

While data breaches represent highly public examples of identity theft, identity fraud with its long term, time-consuming financial impacts, can occur months or years later. Our Identity Protection program provided by Generali Global Assistance consistently monitors the deep and dark web where stolen personal information is bought and sold, so that if suspicious activity does occur, we can take quick action to minimize the risk and resolve any issues.

To learn more about how you can protect your identity for less than $12.00/month, click here.

 

We are excited to announce our new Research Subscription service.
Black Swan Research

Subscribers will get Real Time notification as Research Reports and updates are available as well as latest press releases and news on the companies covered.

Black Swan Research coverage is a compilation of some of the best independent providers of Micro Cap Research.  The service focuses on micro-cap companies that are typically not followed by Wall Street analysts.  In addition our subscription research service includes ValuEngine research on over 5,000 stocks with stock valuations, Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations, and forecasted target prices.

 Click Here for Complete Description

See Below for current coverage and info regarding our Research providers

Trickle Research Click Here for More info>>

Consilium Global Research Click Here for More Info>>

Falcon Strategic Research Click Here for More Info>>

Catalyst Research Management Group Click Here for more Info>>

ValuEngine Click Here for More Info >>

ValuEngine.com (VE) is a stock valuation and forecasting service founded by Ivy League finance academics. VE utilizes the most advanced quantitative techniques and analysis available.

To Subscribe Please click Here

 

Premium Profiles and Executive Summaries
   New Jersey Mining
   Chineseinvestors.com, Inc.
   ID Watchdog, inc.
   Endurance Explorations Group, Inc.
   Aethlon Medical, Inc.
   Galaxy, Gaming, Inc.

Research Reports and Updates  
Aethlon Medical Inc. -AEMD

Assure Holdings Corp. (ARHH) Research Report 11-10-17

Command Center, Inc. (CCNI) Research Report 9-18-17
Trickle Research earnings update 11-15-17    12-24 Month target Price $.80

New Jersey Mining (NJMC) Research Report 1-18-17
Trickle Research earnings update 11-15-17    12-24 Month target Price $.21
-Allocation Upgrade 6-19-17
   -Research Earnings Update 4-17-17

Pulse Evolution Corp (PLFX) Research Report 9-18-17

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX) Research Report 4-25-17
-Trickle Research Earnings Update 11-17-17 12-24 Month Target Price $7.50
-Trickle Research Note 10-25-17
-Trickle Research Note 8-28-17
-Trickle Research Earnings Update 8-21-17
-Trickle Research Allocation Update 6-7-17

 

Updates on Reg A +

Nice article from our friend Ron Costa at Reg A Money and a great podcast as well

“Regulation A+ Improvement Act of 2017” Legislation Boosts Reg A+ to $75 Million

The House Financial Services Committee, led by Chair Jeb Hensarling, has been pushing through legislation very quickly these days. One of the issues Regulation A+ (Reg.A+) offerings seems to be facing is many large institutional investor firms think that a maximum raise for a Reg.A+ offering isn’t high enough. That’s about to change as a House of Representatives panel recently approved a bill that would raise the limit on a Reg.A+ deal from $50 million to $75 million to further bolster capital raising efforts for companies considering equity crowdfunding as a means to raise money. Read More

“Reg.A Money Show” Publishes Podcast Explaining Why Websites and Social Media Platforms are Essential for Regulation A+ Offerings

Las Vegas (12/0/2017) — The Reg.A Funding Group announced today that they have published their latest “Reg.A Money Show” podcast explaining why websites and social media platforms are essential for a Regulation A+ offering to be successful.

With so many intricate parts that need to work like a fine-tuned machine for a Regulation A+ offering to be successful, sometimes one of the most obvious components is overlooked – and that’s creating a website and social media platforms to showcase your company and Reg.A deal to your crowdfunding evangelists. While it’s not difficult putting up just any old website, Reg.A+ issuers must be sure their website is informative, entertaining, and a work of professional quality if they want to be taken seriously – and that’s where things get tricky. This podcast explores why companies who ignore constant updating of their online presence will have a much more difficult time finding investors for their Reg.A+ offerings.

A company's “Investor Relations page” on their website is where the tire meets the road. Reg.A+ SEC compliance rules come into play! There are some extremely important points and “must haves” to be considered in this regard – all of which are covered on this “Reg.A Money Show” podcast.

Besides currently being heard on the iHeartRadio Network, the podcast episode can be accessed here: http://ipotogo.com/websitesandsocialmedia

 

Reg D 506(c)

If you have a Reg A or 506(c) offering you would like us to distribute to our database, please give us a ring or email to:
727-823-3987
cdilley@smm.global

  Corporate News Updates
Assure Holdings, Inc. (ARHH)
11-30-17 Assure Holdings Reports Strong Third Quarter 2017 Results

 

Canbiola, Inc. (CANB)
11-3-17 Dr. Robert A. Kornfeld Joins Canbiola, Inc. (CANB) as Medical Advisor and Distributor

   Chineseinvestors.com, Inc. (CIIX)
12-20-17 Top-Rated Cryptocurrency Podcast, "Bad Crypto Podcast" Features Interview with ChineseInvestors.com, Inc.'s CEO, Warren Wang
12-05-17 ChineseInvestors.com, Inc. (CIIX) Partners with Global E-commerce Behemoths


Ecom Products Group (EPGC)
11-21-17 Keith Holloway, CEO of Ecom Products Group, Provides a 3rd Quarter Operational Update

Endurance Explorations Group, Inc. (EXPL)
11-14-17 Blue Water Ventures International, Inc and Project Partner Endurance Expeditions Group, Inc Announce Operations Team on Site of Sunken Steamship

Magnegas, Inc. (MNGA)
12-6-17 MagneGas Forms MagneGas Europe To Accelerate European Joint Venture
11-28-17 MagneGas Launches USDA Sterilization Pilot at a Leading Dairy Farm in Bowling Green, Florida

MOBI724 Global Solutions, Inc. (MOBIF)
12-13-17 MOBI724 Global Solutions Inc.’s Completes the Integration of Its One-Swipe Solution in Colombia and Is Now Ready to Generate Revenue in the Colombian Market in Q1 2018
12-6-17 MOBI724 Global Solutions Inc.’s CEO Marcel Vienneau Exercises All Available Stock Options Due to Expire on December 4, 2017


New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC)
12-14-17 New Jersey Mining Releases Updated NI 43-101 Technical Report for Its Golden Chest Mine and Provides Corporate Update
11-14-17 New Jersey Mining Company Provides Third Quarter Update on Operations and Corporate Activities

Social Reality, Inc. (SRAX)
12-14-17 SRAX Publishes White Paper Outlining Details of Blockchain Technology BIG Platform
11-28-17 SRAX Intends to Pay Cryptocurrency Dividend with BIGtoken

True Nature Holding, Inc. (TNTY)
10-17-17 True Nature Holding, Inc. (TNTY) Seeks to Acquire Two ‘Compound’ Pharmaceutical Groups

 

 

Event Calendar Updates

LD Micro 10th Annual main Event
Dec 5-6th  Luxe Hotel Los Angeles
Click Here for more info

Apparently there was great turnout but the California Fires forced an early shutdown of the event. More on that next week.

New Events

NIBA New York Conference March 27-18

Stay Tuned for details of next Conference Click Here to Register

 

Go to ValuEngine.com

 

December 14, 2017

 

For today's bulletin, we take a look at Pulte Homes $PHM. We also provide a link to download a FREE STOCK REPORT on the company.

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 57.79% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 21.82% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Thirteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

If you cannot display this bulletin properly, GO HERE

To subscribe to our bulletins and receive content whenever it is published, subscribe at our blog HERE

--No Place Like Home

Pulte Homes Is STRONG BUY For ValuEngine

We've come a long way from the Bush The Younger Great Recession and housing market blow up. For today's bulletin, we take a look at one of our STRONG BUY stocks that also happens to be a giant in the housing sector. Pulte Group (PHM). Pulte shares have recovered nicely from post-crisis lows of less than $5/share back in 2011. 

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), through its subsidiaries, engages primarily in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes; and the construction of housing on such land. It offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods names. As of December 31, 2016, the company controlled 99,279 owned lots and 43,979 lots under land option agreements. It also arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans, principally for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. The company was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

ValuEngine continues its STRONG BUY recommendation on PULTE GROUP ONC for 2017-12-13. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that PULTE GROUP ONC has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Momentum and Company Size. 

You can download a free copy of detailed report on PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) from the link below.

ValuEngine Forecast

 

Target
Price*

Expected
Return

1-Month

33.66

1.03%

3-Month

33.99

2.01%

6-Month

35.27

5.86%

1-Year

37.46

12.41%

2-Year

41.69

25.13%

3-Year

44.32

33.01%

 

 

Valuation & Rankings

Valuation

26.19% overvalued

Valuation Rank(?)

 15

1-M Forecast Return

1.03%

1-M Forecast Return Rank

 98

12-M Return

69.14%

Momentum Rank(?)

 92

Sharpe Ratio

0.56

Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)

 76

5-Y Avg Annual Return

14.16%

5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank

 77

Volatility

25.10%

Volatility Rank(?)

 60

Expected EPS Growth

26.35%

EPS Growth Rank(?)

 62

Market Cap (billions)

12.35

Size Rank

 90

Trailing P/E Ratio

15.40

Trailing P/E Rank(?)

 80

Forward P/E Ratio

12.19

Forward P/E Ratio Rank

 75

PEG Ratio

0.58

PEG Ratio Rank

 59

Price/Sales

1.49

Price/Sales Rank(?)

 59

Market/Book

2.94

Market/Book Rank(?)

 42

Beta

1.21

Beta Rank

 29

Alpha

0.37

Alpha Rank

 91

 

DOWNLOAD A FREE SAMPLE OF OUR PULTE HOMES (PHM) REPORT BY CLICKING HERE

ValuEngine.com is an Independent Research Provider (IRP), producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 5,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day.
Contact ValuEngine at (800) 381-5576 or support@valuengine.com  
Visit www.ValuEngine.com for more information

ValuEngine Capital Management LLC is a Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) firm that trades client accounts using ValuEngine's award-winning stock research. 
Contact ValuEngine Capital at info@valuenginecapital.com
Visit www.ValuEngineCapital.com for more information

 

 

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